TSX:AD.DB.A - Post by User
Post by
SunsetGrillon Nov 10, 2021 3:19pm
228 Views
Post# 34111588
Scotia Analysis
Scotia AnalysisRating Sector Perform
1-Yr. Target C$21.00
AD.UN-T C$18.71
1-Yr. Return 19.5%
Div. (NTM) $1.35
Div. (Curr.) $1.32
Yield (Curr.) 7.1%
Q3/21 Initial Take – Roughly In-Line Quarter As Planet Fitness Returns to Full Distributions
OUR TAKE: Slight Positive.Alaris reported third-quarter results that were roughly in line with expectations with some positive developments.
Management struck a positive outlook for the next 12 months following more than $400M of capital deployment over the past year. Based on the financial results so far, Alaris expects an overall positive reset on its distribution for 2022 of ~2.0%, which would add $0.06/un of additional revenue.
With the recently announced sale of Federal Resources, Kimco remains the other investment and management is continuing to evaluate the possibility of a full, or partial redemption. While nothing remains imminent, management maintained the expected redemption value for Kimco at US$60M to US$70M (vs. US$53M to US$75M initially). This amount is inclusive of unaccrued and unpaid distributions from the prior periods of US$13.6M. Alaris did receive an additional US$3.4M of distributions from Kimco related to unaccrued deferred prior year distributions.
We will provide a full update following the November 10 conference call at 11:00 a.m. ET (dial: 1-866-475-5449).
KEY POINTS Normalized EBITDA/sh of $0.74 came in roughly in line with us and the Street at $0.76. This was up more than 30% y/y from higher revenue due to the recent capital deployment initiatives. The slight variance against our forecast was a better-thananticipated top line that was offset by higher-than-expected opex and finance costs. NCOA/sh of $0.66 came in ahead of expectations and more than doubled over last year.
The health of AD's portfolio remains in good shape. The company's weighted average Earnings Coverage Ratio (ECR) remains in excess of 1.7x. Of the 19 partners, two have an ECR in the 1.0x to 1.2x range, two are in the 1.2x to 1.5x range, five are in the 1.5x to 2.0x range, and ten have an ECR greater than 2.0x.
This quarter, 13 investments had no change in their ECR, three (DNT, Heritage, and Amur) experienced an increase in their ECR, while three (B&S, Edgewater, and SCR) experienced a decrease. The quarter also saw Planet Fitness return to paying full distributions for the first time since Q1/20.