Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Alternate Symbol(s): OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based exploration and production company. The Company operates in one segment, to explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin directly and through investments in securities of subsidiaries holding such interests. It has a portfolio of assets producing around 35,700 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. Its operating areas include Cardium, Peace River and Viking areas of Alberta. Its Cardium asset is a fully delineated and de-risked asset. It is focused on manufacturing repeatable low-decline and high-netback light-oil wells across its Cardium land base. The Viking is a light oil, horizontal development play located in central Alberta. Its operations are focused on the Esther area. Peace River is a stable, cold-flow, base production asset. It operates on a contiguous and an acreage within the heart of the Peace River Oilsands region.

TSX:OBE - Post by User

Obsidian Energy Ltd > Q2 2022...Let's do own prelim guidance...

<< Previous

Bullboard Posts

Next >>

Comment by kavern23on Nov 13, 2021 6:03pm

88 Views

Post# 34123825

RE:RE:RE:Q2 2022...Let's do own prelim guidance...

Typo mean 100 CF quarters not FCF quarters

kavern23 wrote:

Thanks Hendrick. Good point on man. comp expense, not taking that into account.
I went back to 2018 reports...basically every Q2 from 2021 back to 2018.
Person can tell closing some really high operating wells over the years has helped on operating costs. Operating costs are much better at OBE now.

2021 was the year of the "comeback" for OBE.
2022 is shaping up to the year we become a "star". 100FCF quarters is serious stuff. Join the big boy club.. Things have only improved since July and August.

By spending 150 in capex from Q3 of 2021 to end of Q1 2022 (which I suspect is the plan) sets OBE up with some much optionability in 2023.
Obe prob could maintain on a 80-90 capex in 2023.

I think divy potential is too high in 2023 for a buy out price to be high enough in 2022 to get board approval.

Big if...but if the stars align he divy would be crazy in 2023.

I am positioning myself so that I can retire on OBE hitting in 2023.

Hendrick3 wrote: Love your analysis Kavern. Another variable that comes with this success is a

much higher stock price which will impact compensation expense, net debt and FFO. That may take your numbers lower by $10m per quarter if the share price goes up $2.50-3 per quarter. However if that happens, we will probably be very happy anyway. I am estimating $3FCF per share in 2022 at $85 prices. A reasonable multiple on that brings us to $15 share price and if they start moving to a dividend of say 5 cents per month, we may hit $20. 2022 is going to be a great year the way things are lining up.