IPO and OBERegression to the mean lol....
I think a factor of "3.35" is what over time...ie next 6 months...ipo will trade at towards OBE:
Right now the USA buying is extreme event in IPO but it will eventually regress to the mean.
And the lower OBE lowers debt over time...the more I expect the factor to increase.
OBE has 25 wells tied in between q4 and q1...different leagues size wise...obe can handle a dud well in a q and not notice it.
IPO netbacks are really high in Q3 because 6 wells produced like 1500 of their 3154 total barrels of oil. In q4 and q1 of 2022 OBE netbacks will really strengthen against IPO's because our turn to have new wells only it will more.
I actually have more confidence seeing IPO at 2.15...we should be 7.20 right now.with Ipo at that price. Only like 2 times over 2022 FCF at 7.20 obe share price.
| ipo | factor | obe |
| 1.5 | 3.35 | 5.025 |
| 1.75 | 3.35 | 5.8625 |
| 2 | 3.35 | 6.7 |
| 2.25 | 3.35 | 7.5375 |
| 2.5 | 3.35 | 8.375 |
| 3 | 3.35 | 10.05 |