OTCPK:CTNXF - Post by User
Comment by
BSdetector2016on Nov 15, 2021 3:28pm
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Post# 34128709
RE:RE:Pretium goes to Newcrest
RE:RE:Pretium goes to NewcrestWe are all paying dearly for the Boy Blunder's idiotic deal with FNV. I see the coming economic study as paramountly critical. It must show that mining the high-grade core of Alpala makes sense, is highly profitable, and can be started before the copper run is over.
I believe that, as long as Boy Blunder is kept in the background, SOLG and CGP will work together to extract the maximum take-out premium from Newcrest and BHP, however, I think that Newcrest has eyes on other things at the moment, and Alpala is rapidly becoming a distraction for them. For this reason I believe that BHP could end-up with Newcrest's position.
RatPatrol wrote: Here's one line of thought, BSDetector. Please allow me to change my mind as the scene unfolds.
1) Newcrest is placing money on low risk, Well managed, operating u/g (stoping, block-caving) mines in friendly jurisdictions. 400k-600k annual ounces with AISC of $1000/ oz. over 10 years or more.
2) Newcrest is REALLY trying to figure out ITS BEST POSITION wrt Cascabel. I think it knows that the answer to this question will be clear by Christmas.
3) BHP is doing REPUTATIONAL DAMAGE BOTH IN ECUADOR AND wrt Noront's ROF properties.
4) Nick Mather's net smelter royalty deal with FNV has taken large value AWAY from Newcrest, BHP and the rest of us and GIVEN it to FNV. Part of SolGold's response to this is to measure out Cascabel's perimeters closely.
So here are TENTATIVE conclusions.
1) SolGold buys CGP and pays FNV its NSR on 85% of production. This is clean because any JV between Newcrest and BHP can be more easily managed.
2) Newcrest combines with CGP (a la Pretium). But then it may buy more properties discarded by SolGold for small change.
There are Many other mutations possible.
Like Noront, infrastructure is a mine maker/breaker.
NONE (except 1 above) are slick.
We c.....
JMHO
Any questions, comments are invited.