COVID to trend downward in coming monthsCOVID impact on flying will continue to trend downward.
Let’s analyze numbers in Ontario and the trends in Quebec are similar. AB messed it up by opening everything free for all over the summer and paid the price. ON, on the other hand took careful step by step approach and has shown great results. AB, BC will follow ON.
The numbers in ON for yesterday are 481 new cases out of which 189 are fully vaccinated and remaining (292 are either not or single vaccinated or unknown status). So as of today, 40% of cases are for fully vaccinated and few months back (when numbers were slightly higher but with lot more restrictions) this proportion was 20% of total cases. As more get vaccinated (protected), the numbers/proportions of unvaccinated will continue to decrease and hence the %age or vaccinated amongst cases will increase. A simple very positive trend because when there are no unvaccinated, all cases (100%) will be of vaccinated.
Overall cases in ICUs and deaths have declined because of vaccine protection. ON still has few restriction, which are bearable. Wearing a mask a not a big deal. As seniors get their booster shot and under 12 start their vaccination, total cases will further drop and restrictions will ease.
Some countries in Europe are thinking of lockdown but it will be the lockdown of the unvaccinated. Fair point. The vaccinated will continue to enjoy their mobility (increasing so with booster shots). Hopefully, more people will be motivated get vaccinated in coming months. Any more restriction will be mostly for unvaccinated.
And unvaccinated are not allowed to fly as of now in most parts of the world. Flying is lot safer than last year. The recovery is well underway. Slow or fast, this is one way street and expect more travel at higher ticket prices. There is enough pent up demand for holiday season. Better airlines will run a very tight capacity managed operation.