Comparision of Kaverns's Unloved and Mature Canadian Energy I thought I would delve into how OBE compares to it's competitors...I mean these are the stocks we will compete for invester attention. I used OBE, SGY, CJ and BTE.
Even thought production size is so different...I think we have more in common with BTE then TVE or Kelt for example.
Out of my list, I know OBE and CJ the best. SGY and BTE weaker on but I am starting to analyze them more.
Anyways, with more clarity as it is almost December, I did a comparions of precovid productoon ie 2020Q1 to different points and into the future.
These is of one non financial reasons I am OBE over the others
OBE is going to have the highest growth in 2022 production vs 2020Q1 levels. By quite a bit over it's competitors...I mean I am using 29500 for 2022 and OBE can easily smash that.
Forward looking is how investors operate.
BTE is slowly turning it around, but to make FCF..man is BTE much smaller then 2020Q1..remember that folks. WIthout clearwater...wow BTE was in trouble. Still think OBE will smoke BTE next year in share price gains..
Only reason CJ looks best at Q3 is the take over they did. OBE will have much better growth in future then CJ on production.
OBE is basically back at 2020 Q1 levels...in q4...right now.
Our capex will pay off.
| Mature and Unloved Canadian Energy | | | | | | | |
| | | | | Estimate | | Estimate | | Estimate | |
| | 2020 Q1 BOE | 2021 Q3 BOE | Var. | 2021 Q4 | Var. | Exit 2021 | Var. | 2022 Guidance | Var. |
| Surge Energy | 20357 | 17642 | -2715 | 20000 | -357 | 21500 | 1143 | 21500 | 1143 |
| Cardinal | 20323 | 19473 | -850 | 20500 | 177 | 20500 | 177 | 20500 | 177 |
| Obsidian | 27092 | 24164 | -2928 | 26730 | -362 | 28500 | 1408 | 29500 | 2408 |
| Baytex | 98452 | 79872 | -18580 | 80000 | -18452 | 80000 | -18452 | 79500 | -18952 |
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