Providence Gold Mines Inc V.PHD

RE:My estimates - ie "MY "speculation" about PDH gold on ground

[2021Gamble]

This from back on May 13

2021Gamble wrote:

just to repeat....these are MY estimates ....although based on info provided by PHD

based on the following from PHD

https://www.providencegold.com/news/gold-assay-results/ This is where we saw 0.01 -> 253.6g/t
https://www.providencegold.com/site/assets/files/3335/2019-07-19_nr.pdf
https://www.providencegold.com/site/assets/files/3346/stockpile_nr_final_sept_4_2019.pdf
https://www.providencegold.com/site/assets/files/3369/nr_nov52019_stockpile.pdf

I would also refer you to the April 27 2021 press release - "excerpt only" below:
As previously reported in the News Release dated February 24 th , 2021, the Company commissioned FLSmidth to conduct standardized extended gravity recovery gold ( EGRG ) processing test work. This included two stages of progressive comminution and three stages of progressive gravity concentration using Knelson concentrators. Two composite batches utilizing 22 kg of material were produced using coarse assay rejects (-2 mm crush) from the 2019 sampling program.

The higher grade composite yielded a calculated head grade of 13.7 g/t Au. After simple crushing to -2 mm (P80 of 836 um), 49.7% of the gold was liberated and recoverable, and after second stage grinding to a P80 of 88 um 77.4% of the gold was liberated and recoverable.

The medium grade composite yielded a calculated head grade of 1.47 g/t Au. After simple crushing to -2 mm (P80 of 917 um), 35.9% of the gold was liberated and recoverable, and after second stage grinding to a P80 of 90 um 61.6% of the gold was liberated and recoverable.

Gold grain size classification determined that the recovered gold particles in the historical stockpile still classify as coarse to very coarse.

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So, from the above "we know" PHD has GOLD in the stockpile....measurable GOLD in the stockpile.  The question of course, is "how much?", and given the limitations of 43-101 ....we are currently left to do some simple math, with some simple assumptions.

You note if you follow the above links - that NONE of the samples returned zero (0) gold.  Yes, there was a 0.01g/t - but that is still not 0.

So, how do we analyze these numbers (those of us that are concerned/interested shareholders)

Well, if we assume, there were two additional composites...ie...a "low" composite - which by necessity means we are assuming "waste rock" is included in the stockpile - this being another assumption, but also that there is a "very high" composite (this would be the outliers.)  What are some assumptions we can make?

Based on those 2019 press releases above , there were 118 samples . 

21 of these samples were <=0.20 g/t (17.7% of samples)

23 of these samples were >=3 g/t (highest 253.60) - (=19.5% ; I will be rounding to 20% for simplicity) - this will be the H and VH composite assumptions beflow.

So lets assume there were actually 4 samples, a L, M, H and VH(to compensate for outliers)

lets use recovery rates: 50% (my assumption) for L; 61% for M(per PR); 77% for H (per PR), and 85% for the VH outlier (my assumption).  These are my "educated guesses and estimates"

What % of total do these represent?

Well, lets use 40% for L (despite that only 17% of the 118 samples fall in this category); alternatively, we could use 20%, but at 0.10 g/t instead of 0.2g/t....but .....that....actually is less conservative if you run the math....so lets stay with 40% at 0.2 g/t

lets assume a further 40% is M,

lets assume VH is a measly 1.5%...

leaving H at 18.5% (20% combined for H and VH versus 19.5% of 118 samples)

lets also assume the 25,000 estimate is accuarate, and t, not yards (negligible difference)

25,000 x 40% x 0.20 x 50% =  1000 g recovered gold

25,000 x 40% x 1.47 x 61.6% = 9055 g recovered gold

25,000 x 18.5% x 13.7 x 77.4% = 49042 g recovered gold

25000 x 1.5% x 34 x 85% = 10837g recovered gold (3 samples of 118 >34g/; note 3 of 118 is 2.5% of the samples...decreased to 1.5% to be conservative)

that's 69934 g of gold (x .035274) = 2466 oz of gold, which at $1800 is $4.4 M of recovered GOLD - from 1 stockpile.

There are 6 stockpiles identified.

"If" all stockpiles are the same, thats $26.4M of recovered Gold.

that's $0.48 per share of Gold on the ground; and could be recovered in 2021 assuming a July start to processing.....makes you go....hmmmmmm.....

Feel free to make any changes to the above assumptions...but PHD is currently at 0.07 per share (55M shares)....if my "estimates" are even high by 50% (and to be honest, I think there are WAY conservative).....but assuming they are high by 50%, that's still $0.24 per share sitting GOLD on the ground..

 And personally...I think the above is "VERY" conservative.

I believe that first stockpile is MUCH larger than 25,000

I believe more accurate %'s, are 20%, 50%, 25%, 5%...

but then....my handle is "gamble"; and i'm optimistic by nature. "rose colored glasses confirmed"

cheers all!!