RE:analogyIf there were only Egrifta and Trogarzo, I think we can assume the company would be able to structure itself to run around a cash flow neutral level. So, the issue is how much will it cost to run the NASH phase III, which is already known ($50 million to get data on the first 400 patients and $160 million total) and whatever cancer trials are ahead. Finding the $50 million for NASH has proven quite hard and I think it is reasonable to assume at this point that if the board moves ahead with the NASH phase III, it will be using money TH has raised itself via equity or debt rather than via a partnership. Maybe there will be a pleasant surprise on the NASH partnership front but it is going to be difficult to convince a larger pharma company to join in with TH on NASH as it got to where it is in a rather miraculous, but highly unconventional fashion. It just is not going to sit well with the medical folks evaluating it at other companies. If you have a very conventional NASH drug, you can get a deal like Arrowhead did from Bristol Myer for their earlier stage NASH candidate, but not for Egrifta.
If the cancer phase 1a shows any indication of preliminary tumor shrinkage, then raising money for that will not be hard. My guess it likely comes via partnership. They may use the good news of a partnership to sell stock to fund at least the first 400 patients in NASH, however, if it causes th stock price to jump considerably. If not, they may opt for the alternative forms of financing they have been referencing lately.
My best guess is that if there is PoC in the phase 1a, we are going to initially underestimate the opportunities that TH will have for future research and funding. I amnot sure even Paul can fully comprehend what they might be looking at if the phase 1a shows a PoC and certainly if the phase 1b shows lots of anti-tumor activity.
In the end, everything depends on good cancer prospects. If TH has those, then financing both cancer and NASH will not be very difficult. Cancer financing may not be quite as necessary since the big pharma partner(s) may incur the costs of any future trials as well as provide upfroont cash to TH. Additionally, the stock price would likely rise above the $14.80 level meaning there would be no need to raise money to pay off the convert.
I am just hoping that if the cancer data is good, they do not sell the company too early.
palinc2000 wrote: The hard part for the market is to try to figure out how the different undertakings will be funded and what will be the breakdown between 1- funds generated from the commercial operations-2-out licensing/partership -3-stock offering -4 debt . Moreover we dont know HOW much funds will be needed and the timeline .....That is a lot to swallow !!!!
It reminds me of a construction site where you see a large picture of a multi storey building and all you see is a big hole and you can hear the sound of heavy equipment and a lot of people running around (white helmets and green helmets.......THe difference with THRX is that there is a completion date shown and presumably the project is completely funded....
So Paul is building a base for a high rise building .....how many floors? what cost? which funds?
Presumably Paul has approximate answers..to these questions ,,,otherwise the construction site would be vacant.....