RE:RE:Update pleaseYes, we all know this, but quite clearly the there's a large amount of selling shareholders that do not remotely know this or they would hold steady --be patient like you and me -- and not dump the share at any price just to get out before year end. That's clearly what's happening and I do believe that when a company has pretty clear indication that there are a lot of uninformed shareholders who don't know what's really going on because the company has only provided updated Phase 1a trial data at one occasion (the quarterly call), they should put a little reminder out there for the uniformed shareholders on what is happening.
Further, if they actually do now know with certainty it will spill to January, they should notify the market as the original date was always stated as "sometime in the 4th quarter". Now, maybe they will actually meet that for all we know.
I also think they constantly do themselves a disservice in thinking if they hold back data they will get some kind of extra pop. Unfortunately for them, they have a lot of very loose shareholders that don't follow it very closely and there's clearly been many who just dump shares, creating this hole they keep getting in to. Instead of the good news coming at closer to US$4.00 per share and rallying it 30% to $5.20, say.. It will be at $3.00 and rally to $4 -- where it was a few weeks back. So they don't achieve what you or they think they can achieve. So better to update the market, give it a "reason" as Scarlet and others say, and keep a lid on the dumping. There's zero harm in so doing and it makes any further PR that much more useful to get you toward that $7 level where you want to trigger some ATM. The ATM will only work with significant share volume demand, and that's been a sore spot. So volume has to be built if they want to trigger that in any meaningful way. They seem to forget that they have tiny, tiny volume these days.
So I don't see that as useless PR at all. It's informing the market of the exact current state which none of us know, possibly stopping the year end puke, and keeping it above $3 for whenever they do actually have news. Dropping from close to $4 to below $3 if you actually have solid developments in your trial that you can release is not a smart move in my book. Build the volume, build the share, build the momentum...based on newsflow around developments.
jfm1330 wrote: So put a PR out to tell us what we basicly already know. To what end? And all that without a word on efficacy. We all know it is taking longer because the MTD is not reached yet and that it is a good thing. As always I am the one with patience here. Good communication will come with good results.
Also, remember that Marsolais said that to confirm efficacy they needed to inject two more doses. Another thing, Levesque clearly want to make a splash with a news as positive as possible because he wants it to drive up the stock price to allow him to use the ATM. So he will wait to do a PR with full data and I agree with him.
At this point there are no reasons to believe the trial is not going as hoped. The company is behaving in a way that points to positive results. The only annoying thing is that the escalation process was slower than expected. I am also sure the company wants to have some efficacy data out of phase Ia. So they take the time that is needed.
Wino115 wrote: Paul, throw us a bone if you do know your previous approximate deadline is moved out to post 4th quarter. Since there is no IR or PR, I have written a nice little update for you to release this afternoon after running it by counsel.
"...excited to update the market on corporate developments in light of our previous releases around reaching MTD in our Phase 1a trial. Phase 1a now proceeding on a longer time line, a time line we have always disclosed as a possibility, due to ongoing sucess in the dose escalation results such that we now have X patients at X dose, no toxicity events at this current level, and the possibility it could move up another level per protocal. If the trial continues along these lines, our clinically-derived maximum dose is set at 750mg --meaning if patients are still not at a dose limiting toxicity, we will have reached our internal maximum we have designed for TH1902. Our original expectation of a 4th quarter completion and MTD identification will likely spill over to January due to reaching these high therapeutic levels, spacing out of patient enrollment, and needing to complete the 1a trial as specified.
As our dosage trial continues to extend, we see it permitting a wide therapeutic window in which to test the full efficacy of our innovative, first-in-class SORT1 PDC in the next phase of the trial. As we continue to follow the prescribed dosage increase and safety protocal, we foresee entering into the extension trial early in the year in an advantageous position. Given our fast track access, we have been discussing our findings and how they will fully inform the structure of the extension trial. As stated in the past, the current design is for 4 cancers with 10 patients each. This could be modified based on findings and discussions and we will release information as we finalize it.
With the potential of a payload on our PDC 1.5x the maximun docetaxol chemo regime dose or higher, coupled with the fact our PDC concentrates the chemo inside the tumor at multiples of what is seen with typical docetaxol chemo treatments, we believe TH1902 will have the potential to work along the lines seen in our pre-clinical invivo work.
As a reminder, this trial is for all-comers, there is no screening for our target receptor Sortilin 1, and we have been dosing along the previously released schedule at 5 cancer centers. At the 420mg level a patient had a non-febrile neutropenia, not a dose limiting toxicity, which then required 3 more patients at that level before moving up. The study is being led by Dr. Meric-Bernstein at the MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston TX. We look forward to updating along the timeline discussed above should our maximu tolerated dosage be achieved."