RE:Help me Understand -- Lumber duty re q4No not quite. I wondered the same
See page #32 of WEF's Q3 earnings report. They paid 20.23% in cash deposits combined for 2019 which includes both CV & AD duty rates
Link: https://www.westernforest.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Quarterly-Report-2021-Q3.pdf
What Phoenix shared is just the final determination of the CV piece at 6.31%. We still need to know the final detemintation on the AD piece to get to the combined total.
The preliminary rate total (AD + CV) = 18.32% vs. the 20.23% paid is cash deposits.
In theory this means we recover (20.23% - 18.32%) = 1.91% of the portion of 2019 sales that were impacted by US duties.
Total revenue for FY 2019 = ~$807M (strike impacted). If you assume ~25% (conservative?) of that was impacted by US duties our recovery in Q4 might be roughly $807 *0.25 * 0.0191 = $3.9M. Still something.