seen on IV board - with thanks, 
In response to msg 374276 by Naamkat Re: Germany warns Nord Stream won't operate if Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate...Impact on VET
It's interesting, I knew the Corrib acquisition was a winner so I only did a cursory scan of the news release two weeks back...so much so that I completely overlooked the two most important paragraphs in the release till I re-read it 2 minutes ago. They are:
- "The purchase price represents a funds flow from operations ("FFO") multiple of approximately 1.5 times. We estimate 2022 full-year pro forma(2) FFO per share accretion of approximately 33% and FCF per share accretion of approximately 53%, based on forward commodity prices(3). In addition, we estimate the transaction to be approximately 11% deleveraging in 2022 with incremental deleveraging and accretion expected in 2023 and beyond." AND
- "Based on forward commodity prices, we forecast 2022 full-year pro forma FFO in excess of $1.45 billion and FCF in excess of $1.0 billion (FFO and FCF in excess of $1.1 billion and $650 million, respectively excluding the Corrib Acquisition). The majority of FCF after dividends will be allocated to debt reduction and to fund the Corrib Acquisition, resulting in year-end net debt of less than $1.3 billion and a net debt to trailing full-year pro forma FFO ratio of less than 0.9 times."
VET is saying that the 7,700 additional barrels at Corrib (actually 46,200,000 ft3) will increase free cash flow per share by 53%, and it wasn't a slouch prior to the acquisition.
To put bullet 2 into perspective, VET has 162m shares o/s. That means proforma 2022 CFPS will be $8.95 No wonder the share is rising, at $14.20, we're sporting a multiple of 1.6x. If FCF is anything like their newly estimated $1b (and they've been extremely conservative for the last 2 years since they dumped Marino and brought back Donadeo as head of the CEO committee), FCF will be $1b/162m sh. o/s = $6.17/sh. or 43.5% despite their recent 15-20% run-up.
Regards,
Naamkat