Kavern's November Cardium Production Estimate...I estimate Bonterra at 14,600 BOE for November. This likely explains the question I posted on the Bonterra board. I asked why would Bonterra tell December at 14,000 BOE instead of Q4 YTD production or an estimate for Q4. October I have them at 14,300. Bonterra looks to have gained 15 wells from Oct to Nov.
The management team and hedges they have are not my cup of tea but at least they had a solid Nov.
Inplay.Not much to say here other then production looks to be holding on an overall level...Nov would be same at Q3 average only a few hundred barrels less of oil and a few hundred more of gas. They held for another month but are going to need new wells tied in soon.
Still a top well heavy compay...in Nov...they have 4 wells between 231 and 211 barrels of oil per day.
IPO is a hard no for me but not advising anyone to do anything.
YGR Nov looked very solid. I would say my prod estimate is least accurate on YGR as they JV so much but I should be in the ballpark...always in ballpark. My model used to come in on slightly low on oil so if my numbers are right it is very positive and I can see why YGR's management gave Q4 guidance.
Decline on west ferrier wells was not bad at all on oil...I knew those wells are going to get better on NG in month 2 but oil sometimes declines hard but these look beautiful. 3 of 4 are over 200 barrels of oil per day and one as high as 258 and low as 153. Two of the wells exploded on natural gas.are over 400 BOE a day each.
Considering Cheddaville 4 pad is in december to tie in and YGR had no new wells to tie in for Nov, Getting an estimate at 10, 300-10,400 range in Nov from 10,100-10,200BOE range in October.
This prob explain why management felt safe in guiance of 10,000 BOE.
Obsidian for sure met my expectations...very solid November. I think OBE still is on pace to exit in 28,500 BOE range on Dec 31, 2021...after seeing November and the well pace.
The 4 well pad in East Crimson looks good as the four well pad I had expected would take around Dec 10th to start producing anything. They were going for like 3 days in late Nov and were cleaning up fast. One looked at 590 barrels of oil in the 72 hours it produced. Getting a full December of flush production should make the 28500 BOE doable.
I did my model with us not owning 45% of PROP so my prior production months are the same. I add the 2400 BOE gained from PROP afterwards always.
Rounded I have OBE at
25700 BOE for Nov Production without PROP production at 100% and
28100 BOE exiting Nov with PROP at 100%. I did things quite conseratively.
Prelimanry numbers on that 4 well pad look so promising.
Other wells of note. The Falher gas well did very well. 660 BOE of Natural Gas and 80 barrels a day of NGL's for Nov.
Bigoray wells are still amazing one is at 261 barrels of oil and other over 250 barrels of oil.
Obe is a great
2100 BOE bigger in Nov then in Sept.
One Pembina...one well did a solid 170 barrels a day of oil and other only produced half of month again. Production was over 100 barrels per day when it was producing. Other I havent found.
New 4 well pad looks so promising....hopinh 2 of them do 350 plus on oil and other two do 250 plus on oil and then NG on top. Looking that way.
| | July | Aug | Sept | October | November |
| Obsidian Well Count | 1302 | | 1297 | 1284 | 1290 |
| Top Ten Wells | 1972 | | 1509 | 2042 | 1938 |
| Average Oil Production (Bo) | 15769 | 15250 | 14851 | 15830 | 15670 |
| NG | 11400 | 11217 | 10954 | 11722 | 12409 |
| NGL's | 2244 | 2207 | 2155 | 2307 | 2442 |
| Adjust Factor | 22524 | 21936 | 21387 | 22833 | 23247 |
| Total Production | 24767 | 24144 | 23542 | 25140 | 25689 |