BLACKROCK Municipal Income TRUST V.BFK.P

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Dilution is coming in my opinion. However it doesn’t mean

[Shazam57]

Touran77 wrote:

ridingrockets wrote:

Touran77 wrote:

 

ridingrockets wrote:
Its pretty simple no?

The note holder is possibly (most likely) in a short position with HEXO - we know HEXO short position has increased in the month of December.

They get their intial payment in shares they sell them thus dropping price with new shares on the market they get their dollar amount eitther way. But not all shares are sold at once (see bumps in price) they maintain an average sale price target to protect their initial payment amount while sitting in their short position. Pumper/bashers do their thing; read this board. lol?

Next month rolls along - they now are not holding their 9.99% so HEXO can give them combo cash/shares or whatever....

Rinse repeat keep forcing HEXO to dilute thus increasing the return on their short position and getting their monthly payment along the way.

Pretty straigtforward. It comes down to shares being issued/received and if there are restrictions (which would favour the company) or if they are freely tradeable..... (let people read agreement for themselves :P)

If the NOTE holder who??? is sitting in a short position it is in their best interest to force HEXO to pay.

They do not care about HEXO - They are getting a massive return from their initial investment. Sadly a lot of people (retail) get hopped but in some ways kudos to them cause their ROI is huge on this one. HEXO bombed Q1 and it hurt them. That is not on the note holder. That is most likely what is happening right now and that is all they care about. Their $$$!

I am pretty sure you know all about that, no?

Side note:

https://www.headset.io/the-best-selling-cannabis-products/ontario-pre-rolls

Look at the graphs of Redees and you will see that Cold Creek Cush and Wappa have both trended downward in sales volumes over the last 90 days - Wrapped and Redee (xmas one and cheapest offering) jumped towards xmas and dropped the last few weeks. Black Cherry relatively stable based on availability.

https://www.headset.io/the-best-selling-cannabis-products/ontario-concentrates

Slipping on hash in Ontario as well for those that are interested....

Sales Q2 looks similar to Q1 slight reduction in overall adult use market - unless they are picking it up elsewhere? The adjusted ebitda is a pipe dream.....

The Note holder does not care about HEXO they want their money and they will get it... How does HEXO get it? Large drop in shares at once? Ouch... Is there sufficient interest in these guys for this? IDK - the market is saturated and HEXO down does good for a lot of others..... Does the Note holder have a position in a competitor? Nice way to boost your other stock(s) no? Drop these guys get your dough and get a bump elsewhere.... lol funny stuff?

Retail investors get hooped a lot! No idea what will happen here but man the clouds above are dark as F^$@!

Have a great night all!

 

 

You speak like they can drop the price forever using this tactic.

What happens the day they sell lots of shares to drop SP down and this results in 4-5-6% ownership instead of 9.7% as reported in Q1.

Next month they know they will be able to fill the gap with the redemptions to bring it back to 9.99%. However, this time due to SP being really low, a group of investors decide to buy lots of shares. Hexo pays redemption in cash with those shares issued instead of giving the note holder shares at really low SP. Note holder cannot cover short position and has to buy shares on open market if he wants to go back to owning 9.99% in Hexo.

We both agree that it was in the best interest of the note holder to short (and it sure helped that the entire sector was hurting) , but until what SP will it be playing with fire? Hexo "working with banks" means exactly that, looking for group of investors ready to invest a lot in Hexo IMO. Just few months ago Hexo raised 140M USD at 2.95 USD per shares, those investors knew about the 400M debt. Now the debt is lower and the raise would bring it down even more, how much a group of serious investors are ready to invest and at what SP? 

Retail have to start playing the same game they are playing. We can't beat them, but we can join them. If you think that once all this pressure it is over, it won't explode, well I disagree :).
 

Good talk as always riding.

GLTA

ps: don't go to heavy until daily uptrend :).

Touran

What happens to their short position assuming they have one if/when HEXO fails to post an adjusted postive ebitda Q2?

How many days to cover their short postion assuming they have one in the event they find themselves having to cover?

Would need to know what was the purchase price of their short position and what is the size of their short position....

Are they naked?

How many shares o/s from the time they have been shorting to if/when they cover? As in what is the risk of having to cover anywhere close to where they started? Quinns use of spreadsheets helps when working stocks like this. lol...

The note holder is raking right now and they will demand HEXO to make their payments as they have been. Until advised from HEXO it is absolutely naive to believe otherwise.

Was it not Trent who said they were working with banks? And when was that? It was BMO and Lazzard no? Was that not mentioned back in November, if I recall correctly? Where are we now? How long does it take to sort this out when a bank BMO is initerested in moving forward? Not 2 months. So how interested are they or anyone else for that matter?

Why the delayed annual shareholder meeting with selected voters only? March 8? - if you want to play a game of russian roulette buy the day before this date? SP will likely be at its lowest and if something palatable is presented to the public the 'jump' Q dreams of may happen. But big risk cause if they had good choices they would just do it....

Personally I will not be holding any shares come Q2 call unless something positive happens prior; I will be out 100%.... I am not watching my money get tied up hoping I don't get burned. Riding rockets is about finding ones that don't blow up on you lol. FIRE:CT my #1 so far. The writing on the wall if you will was there for them to legit pop but they sold out and well can't cry over a 50% premium; right? But there are definitely others trending in a direction HEXO is not. I don't post much elsewhere just cause but I am still heavy % in cannabis myself. 


How long can the note holder keep dumping and averaging their sales? Well as long as they are receiving shares in lieu of cash I suppose or HEXO fails to post an adjusted positive ebitda Q2 and the remaining note is called...

So do they care about having 9.99% ownership? Most likely but not wanting to have it not wanting to exceed it! Read the contract if something happens to shares and puts note holder in an unfavourable manner it is on HEXO. They do not want to exceed 9.99% it is not that they want the 9.99%.... If any random reader of this post is unsure of why; you need to read more and should get proffessional help. (I am confident you know why Touran)

Again short position, if the note holder (likely) has one, its irrelevant to HEXO SP at the moment as they would be up big ATM. Days to cover is what matters to them if they are naked right lol? Maybe they are maybe they aren't, most likely hedged to a level they are comfortable with.

There is not a bunch of investors waiting to jump in and hold HEXO if anything they may buy and dump on a 20% pop. Day traders not investors.... If there was investors lining up HEXO would have resolved this issue. Retail? LOL - I doubt it. Maybe reddit craze happens or something surreal but that is essentially what would have to happen for a jump that matters at this time.

Re debentures, I have said the opposite all this time right? If memory serves I said for the longest time if they can resolve this in a favourable way + throw in a positive Q1 (North 60m - Redecan in QC by X date....) and they would be likely back on the upswing. t the very least Q1 needs to be a winner and it wasnt.... Made a nice little HEXO YOU ARE A PIG POST expressing this lol... Believe you me I still agree with the sentiment IF they find a way to resolve this, without massive dilution, remains somewhat the same. They will get a pop (to some extent) - nothing like they could have with a solid Q1 though. Q2 boy oh boy is it massive for HEXO - I do not feel good for them. Price reductions have been going on, less visibilitiy in the dispensaries I follow, coupled with the links I previously provided to headset showing their top two PRJ products losing momentum over the last 90 days...

If they resolve prior to Q2 earnings (doubtful) than it will help offset a bad Q2 but if not who knows where market sentiment will be....

If the note gets called and HEXO goes BK, hypothetically, this company will fetch more than whatever is left on the notes come the end of March. ~160m?

Who knows maybe they have found an answer it just means getting hammered, again..... but it is imo a lot better to get on this train once it starts moving. The jump will be just the start if they can figure it out and have a good Q2. To think as a retailer you can play the game as the note holder likely is, will get you burned! But you are one of them right? lol.... doesnt matter to me I like reading from you... I for the longest time (late summer) thought you may actually work here and are trying to keep things somewhat in check? Didn't matter to me to be honest. I was wanting to see these guys amalgamate their acquisitions and hit the ground running. HAHA? Freaking pot heads! Thats what I get for banking on them? Damn it why coldn't these guys, SSL and Trent, be more like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs instead of Cheech and Chong?

A 60m+ Q1 with a Redecan in QC X date could have helped spring them... Main thing would have been a realistic view of an adjusted positve EBITDA Q2 and a path towards free cash flow in the following 3 Qs....

They failed. They continue to fail. Keeping your money in this one come Q2 is extremely dangerous... So many better safer plays happening in this industry.

 

 

 

Good read, thanks for that.
You should try less long posts so that it is easier to adresss one thing at a time (I am getting old? Fawk)

When you say to jump in once the train is moving, this is basically in line with what I have been saying since June, wait for a daily uptrend. Once the trend is changed, there is a better chance to make money:
Last time in November, we saw a nice run from 1.58 to 2.35. I'll go heavy again only once that is done.

Regarding the 2-3 months to find serious investors. Think about if it were you. Let say you and your group have 300M you'd like to inject in Hexo, would you just do it right away back in November? Or would you assess and say... wait a minute, the note holder is probably driving the price down and doesn't look like the trend is changing anytime soon.... and you would wait for the SP to go lower and lower so that you can negotiate the most shares you can with the 300M you are ready to invest.

That would be a risky game though. Let say you waited for better SP to enter in, but you waited so long and have been too greedy and realise that the Quebec government could steal this investment from under your nose (Scott's discussion with Gvnt). Could it be possible that you decide to even leak a photo with a HA's member to spread some
FUD about Hexo and make sure Quebec doesn't invest in?

I won't go on with conspiracy theories, but don't tell me the timing of the leak wasn't perfect just a week after scoot has met with Quebec's prime minister.

If Constellations was ready to invest 5B, I wonder how many group of investors would like to buy in Hexo. Not 5B, 400M and you would own a big portion of Number 1 in rec sales with 0 debt. Just food for thoughts.

GLTA

Touran

 

 

If memory serves Sundial has something like 800 million in the bank hehehehe.