RBC Notes Forest Products
Lumber Stats: November shipments and consumption slowed more than production
Event: The Western Wood Products Association (“WWPA”) released November 2021 softwood lumber stats.
North American softwood lumber production decreased 1.7% y/y in November – Production was down 3.1% y/y in the US whereas there was a modest increase of 0.5% y/y in Canada. Sequentially, US production decreased 10.7% m/m due to a 4.5% m/m decrease in the US West, a 15.0% decrease in the US South, and a 10.7% m/m decrease in US Other. In Canada, production was up 4.4% m/m due to a 7.2% m/m increase East of the Rockies (+1.4% y/y) which was partially offset by a 0.1% m/m decrease in British Columbia (-1.0% y/y). The impact of BC flooding didn't seem to show up in the production data, despite curtailments at some sawmills in late-November, but BC shipments were down 6.6% m/m.
Operating rates were down m/m in the United States but increased m/m in Canada – According to the WWPA, US operating rates were down by 5 percentage points m/m to 80% while the Canadian operating rate was up 4 percentage points to 82%. In the US South, operating rates decreased m/m by 9 percentage points to 79%, while operating rates in the US West were flat m/m at 81%. The BC operating rate was flat m/m at 73% while East of the Rockies, the operating rate increased by 6 percentage points m/m to 88%.
North American softwood lumber consumption declined 7.5% y/y in November – A 4.9% y/y decline in US softwood lumber consumption (or ~203 million board feet) and a 23.3% y/y decrease in Canadian softwood lumber consumption (or ~161 million board feet) left November North American consumption down 364 million board feet y/y. The y/y decline in US lumber consumption was likely attributable to the rapid price increases in November following the flooding in southern BC; growing worldwide supply chain and logistics issues are likely also a drag on consumption as producers struggle to move inventory.
US softwood lumber imports decreased 4.8% m/m – US imports of Canadian lumber were down 2.5% m/m and down 2.3% vs. November 2020. Non-Canadian imports fell 21.7% m/m (or by ~35 million board feet) to 126 million board feet, which is down 38.4% vs. November 2020. The m/m decline in Non- Canadian imports was driven by a 26.1% m/m decline in European imports and a 25.8% m/m decrease in imports from Latin America.
US log exports decreased 30.1% m/m – According to the WWPA, US softwood log exports were down 30.1% m/m to 108 mmfbm, with a 46.7% m/m decline in exports to China, a 17.4% m/m decline in exports to Japan, and a 22.7% decline in exports to Canada which was partially offset by a 16.9% m/m increase in exports to Other Countries.
Midweek pricing update – According to Random Lengths (“RL”), the Framing Lumber Composite increased by $6 since last Thursday to $1,189, as logistics-driven supply issues continue to be a concern. SYP 2x4 #2&btr pricing decreased by $40 since last Thursday to $1,400, as producers clear accumulations at relatively lower price levels. In Western SPF, 2x4 #2&btr was up $50 compared to last Thursday to $1,230 as prices turned upwards in active trading.
Wood Products Q4 earnings so far have been positive – With PotlatchDeltic, Resolute Forest Products, and Interfor having already reported, we find that results have been relatively positive with supply chain and input costs being the only constraints. Similar to our forecasts, the companies are expecting strong results throughout the beginning of 2022, as demand remains high despite elevated pricing.