RE:Lee, Ukraine situation and the oil narrative “This seems like that decades old movie Wag the Dog?” That is true. It has been mentioned in public, even where I live, far from DC, and any major city. Biden has ties to Ukraine via his son’s dealings there, by way of, a board of directors position with Burisma Holdings Limited. Hunter Biden had no experience in oil and gas, and was paid a lot of money. It is well documented, and scandalous! The Biden clan, could clean up some messes there. Putin just wants to put the old communist Soviet Union back together. Biden is not running the US government, he is taking orders, reading a teleprompter, and hiding in a basement playing Mario Cart!
“This is a major distraction to US domestic policy AND a major distraction to the ongoing supply demand equation for oil” - Putin likes higher oil prices, especially for his oil exports.
Communists always fail, because what they do, and promote, is counter productive. Putin comes from a communist state, and many in the US government want to throw out the constitution, and move to a communist dictatorship. When your method of operation involves rigging outcomes, controlling the media to distribute propaganda, and taking freedom, incentives, and choices away from people, failure is all that can be achieved. The United States is half way there already. The other half will not go down without a fight, and that scares the communists in the US. I personally, hope communists in the US sleep with one eye open, every night! Canada seems to be in the same situation with Trudeau, and others.
Another problem worldwide, is that a war between Ukraine and Russia, could cause others to begin as well. India vs China, India vs Pakistan, Isreal vs most of the middle east, could happen at any time.
Wars could be used as an excuse to eliminate debt, and install a financial reset. Oil prices, and companies like Baytex, will see demand, and prices rise to new all time records, if wars break out. Increase of demand, and higher prices will happen without war, and will be more gradual.
Baytex already survived the oversupply problem, since drilling crashed at the end of 2014. Drilling as of now, is far from where it was in 2012-2014. Drilling is also focused mainly in one area of Texas, which is the Permian. This is going to help, though it is more of a start, and not a complete solution.
Baytex, and oil in general, will be more volatile because of uncertainty, which markets historically do not like. Sector rotations, out of sky high valuations, in to oil and gas, will take place. The volatility is likely to provide higher highs, and higher lows for Baytex, and other oil and gas companies.
I am not for wars, and, I am not for dictators and communism. I will fight for freedom.
“You can’t have something for nothing, you can’t have freedom for free.”
RS