RE:Valuation Thoughtsnoteably the $2 estimate was based on $500/t kcl... prices are now north of $700 and not trending down any time soon given what's happening in Russia/Belarus/Ukraine.
I'm going to put together a forecast model but
- increasing from 0.7 tp 1.4m tonnes in their original guidance should MORE than double earnings (some level of fixed costs)
- $700/t vs $500 needs to be compared to a cost of something like $300... so margin increases from $200 to $400 (doubles)
- there's going to be some leakage to tax / etc, but its more than doubling production (from 1.4 to 3.0 m tonnes)...
I would be shooting for something closer to $4 of earnings at 3M tonnes.
This should easily be in the teens over the coming weeks.
Happy holding!