RE:Im back in Welcome back Tim.
I agree with all that you are saying but why are you in the camp that USA production is not climbing well....
At 800 rigs right before Covid started in Q1 of 2020....USA was holding 12.5M barrels of production.
At over 650 rigs now....and current production of 11.6M....over time USA is well on the way to passing 12M barrels again.
That is a huge problem for OPEC. No cartel wants too articially produce less so a competitor can produce more.
OPEC and USA are comepitors.
OPEC wants to sell oil to the rich west and Europe...as they want ur currency and not the Rupee or Yuan.
OPEC can not let USA grow like this.
Permain basin is forecasted to set a new record in April.
Tim14235 wrote: Been waiting for this pull back. The board raised max hedge to 80% for a reason. I expect april and may at the very least to be near 80% and hopefully more months after at a lessor portion. We are about to finance. Those hedges just gave more surety to the debt profile. The key is to get rid of capital return restrictions of our notes. With that gone, and a long term debt profile, you simply start paying a small div or buyback shares. All possible with 85+ oil with my math.
The risks around this investment is macro. But real rates are still negative so you can sit out and think the world will boil over and loose on inflation or take a company that is literally months away from a capital return. Frac spreads are still down. US production aint climbing fast. Saudi and russia remain steadfast.
Do not forget that the market has not awoken to our massive clearwater position. It is only starting to show up on the comp maps. We should have results soon too.