RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:BCYC down 33% pre marketHere's one analysts take on what they found interesting. Of course, it's only around the stocks he covers. I'll probably get one more summary piece and see if there's any interesting "trends" they highlight. I think Macrogenics is a decent ADC comp to what THTX could become. They have two China JVs and some others and a number of different oncology trials. They have one approved drug as well (Margenza) for a type of breast cancer.
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AACR 2022 – What Grabbed Our Attention Over the Weekend: Read-through from Bicycle, Affimed, and KSQ: FATE, CTMX, MGNX, TNGX
We are attending AACR and have three takes from datasets that stood out over the weekend: 1) Synthetic lethality - Positive Read-though to Tango (TNGX, OW rated) from KSQ: We’re encouraged by further validation to Tango from KSQ’s presentation (ND01) for its USP1 inhibitor (KSQ-4279), which demonstrated potent inhibition of USP1 (Ki of 1.2nM), as well as both single agent and synergistic activity in combination with PARP inhibitors in BRCA/HRD ovarian and TNBC xenograft models – consistent with preclinical data we’ve seen from Tango. We’re further intrigued by preclinical data from Tango (#2603) that suggests an opportunity beyond BRCA1/2 mutant tumors – with data showing a subset of BRCA 1/2 WT lung cancer cell lines are also sensitive to USP1 inhibition. Ahead of Tango’s IND in 2023, we believe initial clinical data from KSQ, which started dosing in September 2021, could be a key catalyst - Affimed – Positive read-through to FATE (OW rated) – Affimed reported encouraging Phase 1/2 clinical data from a cord-blood derived NK cell therapy in patients with r/r Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphomas. In 13 patients treated at the RP2D, the ORR was 100% and the CR rate was 62% (up from 38% previously). 7/8 patients who achieved CR remain in CR at median follow-up of 6.5 months, including 2 patients still in response at 10+ months. 1/8 patients with a CR experienced disease progression at 7.9 months Safety profile appears good with no CRS or GvHD. While we believe the initial response rate data is encouraging for the NK cell therapy space, we prefer the scalability of iPSC, so view the validation of the NK cell approach as positive read-through to Fate, where we continue to see significant upside from the company’s iPSC derived NK cell therapies. 3) Bicycle Therapeutics (BCYC, not covered) – New modality looks competitive to ADCs, mixed read throughs to CTMX and MGNX – Bicycle reported encouraging clinical data in urothelial carcinoma with a 50% ORR and 13% CR in 8 patients treated at the higher 5.0mg/m2 weekly dose. 4/5 responders in two dose cohorts remain on therapy after 24 weeks. Overall the safety profile remains attractive and continues to confirm potential differentiation from ADCs with low incidence of skin, ocular, and neuro tox. Positive on the validation of Bicycle’s alternative-ADC approach, but continue to like the prodrug versions of ADCs, remain positive on upcoming data from CytmoX’s and Macrogenics’ ADC approaches.
qwerty22 wrote: This is the nature of early data. You are making broad stroke assessments and things quickly shift with each new piece of the puzzle. That's how it goes until you have enough data to get a true picture of where it will all land. I'm with you, their data looks ok. Maybe the stock will end up about where it was prior to the recent volitility, all seems like an over-reaction.
It will be interesting to see who are the winners and losers from AACR. My guess is THTX will be largely unnoticed.
Wino115 wrote: So rises on it's COVID therapy last week, falls on overly optimistic projections on it's Nectin-3 oncology. Nervous market and indecisive investors. I don't follow it that closely so don't know what the AACR expectations were, but the overall results seemed ok -- ORR around 50% and a mixture of responses. Safety actually looked ok. Guess the market just wanted more from it. I suppose a reason to always keep expectations on the low side!