April 13, 2022
Forest Products
Panel Stats: Production increases against strong pricing backdrop
Our view: North American structural panel production was up y/y and q/q despite continued supply chain challenges across the industry. Pricing was near record levels in Q122, fueled by demand as well as transportation disruptions, and we expect it to remain elevated through 2022 given factors such as strong demand, limited supply, and a lack of new capacity coming online. However, also note a recent significant decline in panel pricing, with Random Lengths reporting a $314/msf w/w decrease in its OSB Composite to $1,058/msf on April 8, 2022. In terms of expected changes to supply in 2022, we highlight the restart of West Fraser Allendale (+760 mmsf), offset by the conversion of LP Sagola to SmartSide (-420 mmsf).
Event: The APA released its Q1/22 North American Structural Panel report.
Highlights
North American panel production increased 0.4% y/y and 1.9% q/q during Q1 – Structural panel production statistics showed a 37 mmsf y/y increase in structural panel production, with total production also increasing 1.9% q/q. OSB production was up 2.0% y/y (+117 mmsf), as production increased in Canada (+119 mmsf) and was down slightly in the United States (-2 mmsf). Production of OSB for sheathing, siding, and other applications increased 1.2% y/y, 3.8% y/y, and 9.8% y/y, respectively, partially offset by a 0.4% decrease in flooring production. In plywood, North American production was down 3.0% y/y, driven by a significant decline in Canadian production (-10.3% y/y) and a slight decline in US production (-1.3% y/y). Of note, total Canadian panel production increased 4.0% q/q, which we think could be attributed to a partial recovery from the flooding in the BC Interior in Q421 that drove curtailments from West Fraser (and likely some competitors). Increased y/y production of sheathing, flooring, and other products more than offset a decline in sanded plywood, while siding production was approximately flat.
Implied structural panel consumption increased 0.7% y/y and fell 0.4% q/q – Implied OSB consumption increased 2.8% y/y, with country-level data looking relatively noisy, possibly due to estimated exports of OSB from Canada to the US (US consumption was -2.4% y/y while Canadian consumption was +70.7% y/y to a high of 698 mmsf). Implied plywood consumption fell 3.2% y/y due to an 18.7% y/y decline in Canadian consumption, partially offset by a modest 0.4% y/y increase in US consumption. Although slightly lower q/q, OSB and plywood consumption remain relatively strong. OSB market share was 67.2% in the quarter, down q/q from 68.2% but up y/y from 65.9%.
Offshore plywood imports decreased 7.9% q/q while offshore OSB imports decreased by 73.1% q/q – Offshore imports were elevated in Q2/Q3 2021 before decreasing 26.3% q/q in Q421 and a further 26.9% q/q in Q122. Offshore plywood imports decreased 37 mmsf q/q to 432 mmsf while offshore OSB imports decreased 141 mmsf q/q to 52 mmsf. We expect shipping challenges to continue playing a significant role in the import of offshore structural panel products.
EWP production remained strong in the face of elevated demand – According to the APA, I-joist production was down 2.8% y/y to 205 million linear feet, which was approximately flat q/q. LVL production was down 2.0% y/y but up 2.1% q/q, while glulam production was up 3.1% y/y and up 4.3% q/q.