RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Just speculatingThank you for this ... i too felt disappointed by the family in the past ... i did not count on them selling the CSeries or the trains , I figured their 35 billion sales estimates would easily pay down the debt quickly but things changed and I now know it was Fir the better ... although it still seems like a large debt I believe we will still be able to chop off a good chunk in the next year ... my timeline now includes bigger fcf with better margins , the reverse split which is followed by a minor dividend ... i believe our shares will be worth $3 each by the end of the year , add to that any value the reverse split will equate to them ... the market rewards consistency and estimates beats ... hopefully we have a few more lined up ... GLTA
quote=lb1temporary]Thanks for your toughts, almost a presentation.
I surely share your confidence in Bombardier; I am long, very long with it. And, like you, some shares have been bought in the TFSA and RESP of my sons; but in a more moderate amount than for me.
I lost a lot of money in december 2019 and january 2020 with the false info of Bellemare about the 2019 Q4 forecasts. But, it is now an old story, that loss have been reimbursed when the SP crossed the 1,46$ line last year. I don't keep in mind an historic loss with the title.
I don't share your lack of confidence in the market and your thoughts about the manipulation. I'm sure manipulation exists but apart from some excess volatility nothing to affect the price in a lasting way. Manipulation is only successfull with some poorly known public companies with a lack of volume or by a massive investment by a player on a title (on that case, usually, an activist fund or individual).
Bombardier is a world class company, registered at Toronto, New York and Frankfort. It's one of the two biggest business aircrafts maker in the world, a former investment star. A name well known in any financial market. Any serious distortion in the market about the Bombardier SP could not last long because there are hundreds of investors or funds will see it as an opportunity for fast profits and made the SP raising. Think about the number of hedge funds in the market . It's a small world; there are only a few thousands public companies in the world with market cap of 1 B$ or more. Don't forget that there much more money in the market than opportunities.
Bombardier was the 2021 investment star with more than a 500% SP rise. It is on pause since 6 months, a normal situation after a so huge increase and no real news since that date. On the operational side, now, everyone in the market, acknoledge the turnaround made by Martel. It is now a company with predictable results; a change with the surprise box company we had two years ago. Like others, I understand that the next phase will only happen in 2023 with the production increase (maybe only in 2023 Q4); I am prepared for modest gains in 2022, maybe in the 1,60$ to 1,80$ range. The stock market is an anticipation game but 2023 is too far to be excited by it.
On the caution side,
- it still a CCC+ rated company (in my mind it's a B but i can't ignore 3 different agencies).
- The Ukraine war has its consequences with some orders cancellations (6% ??) and uncertainties.
- The bus jets buying frenzy will have an end. The air travel quickly return to normal levels.
- Last week, a second major US banks predict a recession in less than 2 years.
So, do I understand that the market put a 1,40$ to 1,50$ value on Bombardier ? Yes. In other words, It's a balanced value between the buyers (they buy under 1,40$) and the sellers (they sell over 1,50$).
Do I think that this value is lower than it would be in 1 year ? Yes. Personnally, if I had your lack of confidence in the market and the way it works (manipulation, crooks etc) I would have been unhappy and sad with so much money invested. Or maybe, i wouldn't take any risks and I would not be long in any titles. Life before the money.
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