RE:Interesting day in the market todayObscure1 wrote: NFLX down 35% on Q1 announcement of a drop of 200k subscriptions (which included the 700k drop in subscriptions as they shut down operations in Russia. The outlook for Q2 is worse and the analysts will have to rework their numbers DOWN.
TSLA down $50 per share in concert with NFLX (no idea why as they are not related in any way) in anticipation of release of Q1 numbers after the close. TSLA numbers blew away the concensus numbers and TSLA shares were up $53 in the after market. The analysts were caught with their pants down and will have to rework their numbers UP
SHOP shares were down $106 (13%) for absolutely no reason other than the tech sector was all Red today. I bought a chunk a pretty good chunk of SHOP at the close on my belief that their Q1 numbers which get reported in two weeks will exceed the analysts consensus. I think SHOP has a decent chance of taking a few perecentage points out of AMZN's market share going forward as soon as they get their distribution network set up. Even a grab of 2% of the market will have a huge impact on SHOP. The 70% beat down of the SHOP share price seems over cooked to me and reminds me of when ENB got creamed for a year or so after they acquired Spectra. I expect SHOP to rebound significantly in the next 12 months.
SU recovered yesterday's loss on the $0.50 increase in the price of oil today after yesterday's $6 beatdown of oil prices. I see the trading as very bullish.
I doubt anyone cares about anything in this post other than the last comment on SU, but I always find it interesting when other poster share their thoughts.
Talk about baiting me - lol
Sorry to hear about what happened today regarding your SHOP and TSLA investments.
What are my takeaways?
Over the years I have found that what happens on NASDAQ and particularly tech stocks is often a leading indicator of what will happen to the broader indexes - ie - DOW and S&P500.
Given the downdraft over the past while on NASDAQ relative to the DOW, this does not portent well for the market as a whole. IMO, at risk of sounding like a broken record, be careful out there!!
One way I have looked at things over the years, whether it is for an individual company or the market as a whole, is to ask myself a simple question - "What do I see going forward that would drive the price higher?" If the answer to that question is "lots" then I am fully invested. If the answer is "nothing", I sell. Right now I see the answer as "nothing" (and this is with respect for Migraine's bullish outlook for oil prices).
As I mentioned before, when people are real excited about something and everybody is predicting "the sky is the limit", I am a nice guy and sell my shares to them. Frankly, I see that situation with oil. The broad consensus is that oil prices could go to 200 a barrel. Frankly, over the past 50 years or so that I have been investing, when there is such a consensus, the consensus is wrong. More times than not, going the other way is the best course of action. Who knows, perhaps this time will be different. We will see. People are looking at the oil demand and supply balance and seeing an imbalance in favour of oil. The fact of the matter is that, using the US as an example, over the past year real incomes have declined 3% due to inflation. Europe is in even in worse shape. If that translates into economic activity, a 3% real decline in people buying things would result about a 3 million barrel per day reduction in oil demand. Even a 1 -2 million/ barrel/day decline would have a big impact!
Being a lone wolf can be quite lonely. In 2008/09 just before I retired from the business, I was sort of an outcast in my own company. I went against the guidance and overweighted cash in my book of business. I recall one case where I advised a client who was a senior Executive at ORCL to cash in his stock options. He cashed them out and when the money was is his account he came with his wife and asked - "What are we going to buy with the 200K". I responded - "A GIC!!" He said - "Really?" I said "Yep". Six months later when the GIC matured, the market was down 50% and we bought a lot on sale.
The lesson?
Being a lone wolf means being a contrarian and shifting out the noise to get the real picture of what is going on. Don't get caught up in the rhetoric!! The brokerage firms are not really your friends. So be careful in following their advice.
I can say this as an X-insider.