RE:RE:RE:RE:Very pleasantly surprised Well, let's call this a little fact checking exercise against BSW's methodology. Calling MEG a pure play bitumen takes a lot of other factors out of the equation (ugh, mixed production would be messy)
Using the WCS prices on this site: https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/oilprice, if we average Dec/Jan/Feb we get ~$66USD/b, multiply by exchange of 1.27, and we get realized blended product sales of $84 per barrel by the BayStreetWolf model.
Comparing this to MEG's 2021 report, pages 9 and 11, they had a Q4 blended (WCS) sale price of $82.43. So all other things being equal, the numbers should roll out very similar to Q4 2021.
If on the other hand the sales are booked as per prevailing WTI/WCS price on the day of production, and we use pricing for Jan/Feb/Mar, then we are going to see a very very significant jump, something more like (66+80+95)/3 = ~$83USD * 1.26 = ~105CDN/barrel for WCS.
BIG difference from the $84. I'm not going to extrapolate into FCF, too many other factors to consider.
I guess we'll see soon enough. And hey, I could also be completely out to lunch here, so feel free to knock me down, I'm just learning as I go.
Fuzman5902 wrote: Ok I'll bite
How much FCF @ $ 80.15