RE:7 EU Countries Hit by 10%-16% Inflation, Four by over 9%We are fortunate to own stock in a prospect generator/royalty company that can increase due to several factors:
- More open pit gold can be discovered at Treaty Creek
- Discoveries can occur at other Teuton properties (I like Harry this year for sure)
- Some of Dino's investments in other companies could increase based on their discoveries.
- There could be a spinout of Treaty Creek ownership while retaining the T/C NSR.
- the price of gold can increase
- Another company could recognize that Teuton is undervalued and try to buy it for a premium to the current price.
The first four factors I think are probable. The last two are not as likely short-term in my opinion. I'll go into some detail below on why I don't think the price of gold will spike in the near term. And as far as a takeover of Teuton I think there are plenty of long-term stockholders who will recognize a price that is not adequate and reject any sharky lowball offers.
As to gold prices, from my perspective Japan has always been the canary in the coal mine because their debt to GDP ratio has always been highest among the developed nations. But the inflation rate in Japan continues to be very low compared to most other western countries. The main difference is that wages in Japan are not increasing so prices must remain comparatively flat. Fuel costs have gone up, but not so much for food and other prices.
However, there has been a crack in the Yen. Since March 7 the Yen has declined by more than 11% against the U. S. Dollar. This will cause all imports to increase in price significantly and a continued trend of Yen debasement will set the tone for all other countries who have printed money faster than the USA. The performance of the Yen over the past 45 days is cause for concern and worth watching.
As you would expect, the decline of the Yen has impacted the price of gold in Japan, which has increased more than 29% over the past year.
The low inflation rate has not kept the price of gold low in Japan. For all countries I look at the Kitco Gold Index which is currently showing a
huge divergence between gold price in U. S. Dollars and gold priced in other currencies. I included a link to the Kitco one-year chart below showing how large this divergence has grown.
Kitco Gold Index 1 Yr https://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html#1YR
The Kitco Gold Index is a clear indication that currency value declines across the world are primarily responsible for the increases in gold price. Due to the strong U. S. Dollar, the price of gold has not increased here as yet.
It's easy to project a significant increase in gold price based on high inflation, market dislocations in bonds, and probably equities soon if the Fed increases interest rates aggressively. But it's difficult to project a gold price increase because of the strength of the U. S. Dollar against most other currencies, especially since those countries continue to print money at least as fast as we do.
The expensive nature of gold prices in other countries would tend to slow demand for gold, which makes the currency impact even more obvious.
Some other factor is required to enhance the price of gold here. That something could be an unexpected black swan or fat tail event that overcomes the strong U. S. Dollar or causes a break in the US$ similar to the Yen, or results in a flight to security even at higher prices. It might be an event that creates a liquidity crisis or another credit scare similar to 2008. It might be a threat to the US$ as a reserve currency or other countries reverting to a gold standard. It might be an event that requires the U. S. to print more money than the other countries like another pandemic spike.
Because of economic and geopolitical pressures I expect an event like that to occur, but the exact timing of course is not known. Many folks on this site have made clear how important it is to position our investments to take advantage of opportunities. When the day comes, there will not be an opportunity to put money back into gold or gold stocks if we've moved away from those categories.
The lagging price of gold causes many investors to become impatient and change investment priorities. When that happens to me, I almost always make changes at the worst possible time. This year I can't do that. I just don't see any scenario where the Fed cuts inflation using rate increases without causing a major market tantrum or recession. Even if they get to only 2% on the Fed Funds Rate (currenlty 0.5%) I see significant issues with any large tech company or asset intensive business that has been getting free money for over 14 years. The Fed simply does not have that option without crashing equity markets. And if equity markets tank, the consumer goes away in the economy as the value of his/her retirement funds or other investments decline.
Bottom line, none of these scenarios are short-term. So my approach is to continue to position my investments so that I don't get a nasty surprise in the markets when something does happen to the US$ or economy. At the same time, I think there is a very good chance that more gold will be found at Treaty Creek that falls within the boundaries of open pit economic reserves, and there will be more options on Teuton properties given Dino's excellent track record over the years.
Do your own DD. GLTA. Doug