RE:BSW when will you do estimate of FCF for 2nd quarterQ2 WTI pricing ends in 19 days. At that point will start crunching numbers.
That said a couple things to consider....
1. Track the growth in AFF
Q3-21 $198
Q4-21 $215
Q1-22 $280
Q2-22 $TBD
2. AFF in Q1 was $280M/ Capex $154M...difference FCF
3. Capex in Q2 is typically the lowest due to spring breakup etc.
4. They are guiding 450-500M in capex...lets pick the midpoint 475m
5. With $154M spent in Q1 that means $321M for the next 3 quarters.
6. As you can see 1/3 of capex was spent in Q1...
Last year Capex
Q1 - 83M
Q2 - 62M
Q3 - 94M
Q4 - 68M
FY - 307M
MY GUESS FOR 2022 (Note of course this is a guess based on historical run rate)
Q1 - 154M
Q2 - 89M
Q3 - 135M
Q4 - 97M
FY - 475M
Now note Q2 WTI average is above Q1...so your AFF starting point will be higher...now if we come close to the 89m in Q2 you can rough guide your FCF....
Why is Q2 lower in CAPEX....as mentioned spring breakup etc...less well licenses and drill (I have also seen this tracking the activity)
So yes I expect a very good number for Q2.
Fortune, also note due to inflation in order for companies to maintain their drilling programs announced in 2021 for 2022 they will HAVE to increase capex. If you drill the same amount of wells but inflation drives up cost...capex by default for all companies goes up....unless of course they decide to drill less wells and accept a natural decline in production.
Hope this helps,
BSW
fortunefavorsus wrote: At these oil and gas prices could we see 250 million. I guess it all depends on how much cap ex they spend. I am fine if they are spending heavy in Clearwater as those are paying off BIG and quick now.