RE:RE:BSW when will you do estimate of FCF for 2nd quarterSo just using first quarter pricing FCF should rise to $185 million based on $65 million less cap ex for 2nd. For second quarter oil prices could be $22+ higher than first.
According to Baytex presentation for every $1 increase in WTI they generate $15 million in annual revenue including hedges. So that means as much as $330 million more in annual revenue {$22 X 15million}. I am not even going to try to calucate improvement in WCS and MSW differentials or gas prices in this calcuation.
So on a very conservative ballbark estimate $82.5 million more FCF ($330/4 = $82.5) and $65 million less cap ex gives us approximately $267.5 million FCF ($185+82.5) for second quarter.
Again this does not include improvement in differentials to WCS MSW, new production from huge Clearwater wells, and improvement in gas prices.
It does appear 2nd quarter will be a huge FCF quarter although I think cap ex could be some higher with the higher oil prices. It does appear to me Management was sandbagging estimates..