RE:My new short term target is 5$ Tinker 901, you made my day...
$5 is possible but only after permits, Phase 2 FS, and financing. Based on CRE delivery model to date this may take 18 months
My take is that:
- permits - once granted will go $1.80 - $2 - the reason being the millions of warrants available to suppress the share price and keep it low for the financing deal which for me is already agreed for. I still maintain there is a play here (RCK and FL do not have that many warrants outstanding)
- financing - will be done around the $2 to $2.50 range. IMO CRE management will opt out to fund the construction by issuing shares for 50% of the cost, the other 50% will be a mix of partner(s) and a loan. The share price will remain around $2.50 if that model came to be true.
With inflation, construction costs are higher now so I expect a 50% increase in the capital budget to do Phase 1 construction. Just look at NMX and how their construction cost ballooned. This cost increase will be partially offset by the spodumene price increase but still, I see it as a negative event.
- Phase 2 study - price will move to $3-$3.50 (excitement stage lol)
- Production stage - it will be a $5 stock
I plan to trim my position as soon as we hit $2.50 and above as I simply don't trust this management. I said many times - JSL is here to build the mine not create shareholder value. Will adjust the strategy accordingly based on the order in which the above happens.
The best scenario is to have the permit and then the PH2 study published. Based on this news we can finally shoot to $5 and will be hammered down once the financing is announced.
Still holding for my 100% gain from these levels.