RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Very pleasantly surprised If you were poking at me here, Fuz, the original thread was about realized price in the quarter (you escalated to FCF, that's a stretch exercise for me at this point, but I'll give it a go).
Confusion on lots of the boards, so as a relative newbie I did my own due diligence and confirmed the whole forward month settlement (revenue realization) model, and it's easy to do with Meg as a pure play bitumen producer.
From this site: https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/oilprice
you can see the monthly average prices of WCS.
D 53.10
J 65.60
F 79.10
M 94.57
D-F average (exchange rate 1.26) = 83
J-M average (@1.26) = 100
From the Meg Q1 Report (Page 1):
Blend Sales Pricing MEG realized an average AWB blend sales price of US$83.55 per barrel during the first quarter of 2022 compared to US$65.42 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2021.
Case closed - revenues in Q1 are from production (more or less) in December, January and February (versus J/F/M).
Great news is that prices spike starting in March, and Q2 is going to be MUCH bigger. From Q4->Q1, there was a realized price increase of $17, which brought us from Cash Operating Netback (FCF?) of $345M to $633M. Q2 is tracking around (94.57+88.68est+90est) * 1.27est / 3 = $115CDN. Assuming prices and forex hold for the next 2 weeks (slam dunks, methinks).
So if $17 brings us an extra $288M, then proportionally (115-65=) $50 brings us around three times that, call it $840M on top of the Q4 $345, so $1,185M.
If this is even close to right, we see the $1.2B debt level firmly in Q2 (versus Q3), and if prices hold the $600M debt floor in Q3. FML, I need to get back in asap.
Please, I would appreaciate hearing from all the crickets on this.
Fuzman5902 wrote: Fuzman5902 wrote: Ok I'll bite
How much FCF @ $ 80.15
Crickets as Expected.