RE:RE:Have a great weekend everyone!gmf1001 wrote: so if you apply these numbers to BTEs May presentation plan, they should hit the $800M debt level in a little less than 7 months (roughly the end of November) and ahead of the predicted date (early 2023). Hopefully that means that during the Q3 earnings call, they should give a good idea of what's next for the increasing free cash flow and how that impacts the shareholders. Hedges also get reduceds as we head into 2023 which should boost FCF further driving down debt and increasing shareholder payouts.
roughly 570M shares today - should drop to 550M by year end.
So what should we expect (or want) to hear at the Q3 earnings call? Getting the sharecount down to 500M seems like it could be in the cards. So increasing share buybacks. if they devoted $200M/year in dividens that's about .03/month which is ok - but not ground breaking. So they need to push debt lower to ultimately return $500M a year (or $1/share) to shareholders would seem to be a 2023 goal.
at these prices I think they might hit that debt target in October. What I'm hoping is that on q2 call they address some of their thinking on returns. They certainly should be dialed in pretty good at the point where they are relative to the 800 number. I assume that they will stick to the 2022 plan on debt and buybacks. At these rates I suspect they exit 2022 with roughly 650 in debt. I'd like to see that number completely eliminated. With I think it was 1 billion in fcf at 95 next year, and quite possibly wti running higher than that, completely eliminating the debt next year is achievable plus implementing a dividend program. CJ implemented a 5 cent a month divvy sustainable at 45 wti. My preference would be to go pretty aggressive on the debt and announce a post debt plan. A monthly amount or quarterly amount and announce what wti price it is sustainable at.