Watchman21 wrote: @moemoney... all valid points. Now let me address all your point
Nice work with the calculator.. but.. if you think a small microcap that hasn't sold one test is comparable to multi billion, multi product companies, you're dreaming..!
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This is a TSX venture stock , not TSX Mainboard nor on NASDAQ or NYSE... the very nature of a TSX venture stock is speculative and the potential. These giants are asked by shareholder, Institutions & the street for Quarterly & Annual projections. Not the case on TSX venture. Many have zero to little revenue. So, yes I think it will run. Not to $4 right away... but to $1 as I have projected many many time at EUA. When TYRM hits 2m in sales per month with ongoing contracts, and growing, this could sent to $1b valuation. But again, at the start $1 or $230-300m valuation at FDA EUA.
This statement just confirms my thoughts that you can't compare a microcap start up to these giants!
Not to mention those multi billion $ companies can squeeze the selling price so that any new start ups will have to price so low to attract sales, that there's no profit at all..
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This is where you are wrong. All these big companies gave their shareholders, institutions and the street their annual target, and the shareholders, institutional investors and the street will hold them to it, or punish them. They've all seen COVID-19 TESTS Delivering 30-90% of their revenues this past year alone. That expectation is now set on a product line that didn't exist 2 years ago. What new product have you seen drive this level of revenue for a giant company in 2 years, other than Apple & it's iPhone?. Cutting prices to kill the first saliva test is a "CEO firing" idea (you're fired, you idiot!) for these giant firms. I didn't say they would price to kill the saliva test, only price it so that profits are dimished if any.. don't forget they have other products to rely on.. not a one trick pony.. also if you look at the stock price of every one of these majors the bloom has come off the share price.. this tells me the big "covid push" has come and gone.. sure they may still sell millions of tests but it won't be the driving force it once was.
Buying THRM is the easier path. Buying THRM, it's AcuVid and it $40m in bank (that will be added to the on 72m options and warrants being exercised that sit between $0.375-0.5) makes more sense. About made $3.3M on its test IN 1 quarter. Buy THRM for just $1b . Still have $10b in Q1revenue, and that's just 1 quarter.
Plus, these giants (Abbott, Quidel, Siemens, etc.) already have their manufacturers set up for these lateral flow kits, distribution all set globally and they get $40m cash to boot. That's the smarter play than drop price. Plus they add a saliva test to their hated #1 producing nasal (mid turbinate to "way the f up the nostril "tests) priduct line... again, a new product line that didn't exist 2 years ago, but today it's delivering 30-90% of the giants revenues. Good luck with the buyout strategy.. could happen.. nothing I'd personnaly count on.
No, They won't cut their prices to risk the street penalizing them. They'll just buy THRM ... AND the street will REWARD them! Again it could happen and at these levels its a cr@p shoot at best..
Have you ever watched a show called "Shark Tank" the minute an entrepeneur says they only need a small % of a certain big market.. the sharks jump all over them.. saying don't even go there.. that's not a plan or guarantee for profit.. the shoe fits here too..
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Read the news of late on Fall expectations? 100m projected in US alone will get Covid19 . Yes, it will be more flu like probably, but NOW there are tests to validate COVID vs FLU. People will use them! There have been tests that differentiate between covid and the flu for a long time in the market, case in point Luminex which was bought out by Diasorin about a year ago had a molecular test that did just that..
I wish you all luck.. but lets get real.. posters don't need to justify where the stock price is heading.. the market is doing it for them..
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lol fear mongering words from someone who's probably buying ...but want to give everyone some chicken little "sky is falling " statements so they get concerned and bail. Not at all.. held this stock 3 times.. sold for a profit each time.. then got frustrated with managements continued missing of self emposed targets and bailed for good.. I come here once in a while as a poster named "Kaiser" has been trolling me ever since I started to question managements actions.. funny thing is now he's chirping my same concerns.. only 1.5 years late..
Did you see today's trades. 75k!...People aren't selling they are holding. Ya well people aren't buying either - there's too many here that are to stubborn to take a loss and move on.. remember I called a sell target the last run to $.52 in Oct and got attacked for it.. that alert which I posted here looks pretty good now eh? I never marry a stock.. never will..!
Average volume a day 1M. That's like 0.45% traded a day of the 219m shares out (total float is 239m shares + 72m+ warrants & options at $0.375-0.55).
5m shares traded a week could bring it to a full 2% of 219m shares out. Howevet, I suspect that 80% of 1M shares traded each day are the same shares traded from the day before, and only 200k )or 20%) are new shares being traded. So really ... totaling that up for a week of trading is still less than 1% of total. Have you seen the list of buyers and sellers? Same lists day in, day out for past several months. Some buy more one day, and sell more the other day. But all the same "usual suspects" LOL.. that means nothing.!
This tells me that probably 217m of the 219m shares out are being held very very tightly by a lot of people. 99% held, 1% traded the past few weeks. Being held very tight because 98% of them are underwater hoping for a rally to exit.. as I said.. better take advantage of it when it happens IMHO of course.
Of course this is my opinion and speculation on what's really trading each day.
Good luck to you none the less!