Back of the Napkin, Game Changer Q2 with $102 WTI | | Q2 -2022 | Q1 - 2022 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 |
| | 68500 | 66599 | 60888 | 51500 | 51485 |
| | 2.85% | | | | |
| Price Boe | 73.46788298 | $63.71 | $57.73 | $47.44 | $40.11 |
| | 29.88813255 | $28.57 | $27.31 | $25.42 | $24.35 |
| | | | | | |
| Op Netback | 43.57975043 | 35.14 | $30.42 | $22.02 | $15.76 |
| Corporte Netback | 40.07975043 | 31.69 | $27.08 | $17.18 | $11.84 |
| | 24.02% | 15.52% | 38.15% | | |
| | | | | | |
| Share Price | $15.93 | $11.92 | $7.71 | $5.35 | $4.01 |
| Debt millions | $240 | $413 | $480.00 | 545.4 | $547.00 |
| | | | | | |
| 5.46 | 7 | 5.79 | gas | | |
| 105 | 134.6153846 | 118.21 | condy | | |
| 55 | 55 | 49.3 | ngl | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | 22298.83 | 21680 | Condy | 32.55% | |
| | 6948.84 | 6756 | NGL | 10.14% | |
| | 39252.32 | 38163 | Gas | 57.30% | |
| Projected Increase | | | | | |
| 0.336415805 | 252.58 | 189 | AFF | | |
| | 100.00 | 120 | Capex | | |
| | 152.58 | 70 | FCF | | |
Assumptions
Condensate $102 WTI + 3 dollar condy premium, .78 exchange
Gas $ 7 dollars canadian average
NGL's $ 55
Production increase 2.85% from Q1
Higher royalities
Does this seem reasonable?
Back of napkin, trying to keep it simple.
IMHO