Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

RE:RE:RE:RE:THTX rose 0.9% this week

[qwerty22]

I think we can agree.

NOTHING is driving the SP up.

The data is small and uncertain but it's perfectly fine . Presented clear it could show a drug with good tolerance and early signs of efficacy. That's something THTX can move forward with and something investors with high risk appetites can invest in. As SPCEO says the company has failed to attract those investors. There are investors that are attracted to pre-pre-clinical program that are little more than twinkles in the eye of a boffin. THTX's data should get some attention.

jfm1330 wrote: We will never agree on what is driving SP. Trogarzo's commercial failure murdered the SP, Egrifta commercial failure murdered the SP, and not only that, but the company's reputation too, and what about NASH. They promised a lot on that, and delivered nothing, but I am happy they delivered nothing because it would be suicide to pursue that at this time, given the financial situation of the company. The bacteriostatic water thing came at a good time to put it on ice, and I hope oncology results will put it on ice forever.

As for an equity offering, if as we think oncology will work, why would they do that at the actual price. Add to that the fact that they insisted on the non dilutive aspect of their deal with Marathon. You don't highlight the non dilutive aspect of that just to go dilute a few weeks after. It does not make sense. Add to that the possibility of a deal in China. Also, if what they have in oncology is really special, maybe not in Troveldy territory, but enough for a spectacular turnover, as a CEO, would you promote this thing too early at this weak price? No. I think the goal is to stay relatively quiet for still a few months, and then come with really a big news, the game changer.

 

SPCEO1 wrote: I wish I could believe good interim results would move the stock price. No investors are anticipating those results other than ourselves and therefore none appear to be lined up to react to them in any significant way. The evidence for that is straightforward and overwhelming at this point. Until something changes and the stock gets a heart transplant, we really should not expect the market to price it correctly. 

With the 4 press releases this week following effectively none for months, it smells alot like an equity offering is imminent. Management  might have convinced themselves the stock would have a big bounce on the news they shared on efficacy because they still have not realized they had previously murdered the stock with their lack of engagement. I will give them credit for a lot of good things they have done but they simply do not know how to manage the share price effectively. One problem they likely were hoping to resolve was the analyst coverage issue which will only happen with a share offering. The cost of that is way too high, however, given the absence of a meaningful positive reaction in the stock price. If you are right and I am wrong, which I hope is the case, then they likely will wait until they have a preliminary sign of efficacy before raising money for a phase II trial. 

Thanks too for the excellent info on Trodelvy's 1a. 

jfm1330 wrote: This is the worst time of the year to get attention, especially for a very small company, but some will react at some point. Good interim results somewhere in September will move the SP.

To get a better perspective on yesterday's results, I was looking at the dose escalation phase I of Sacituzumab Govetican (Trodelvy), the Immunomedic's ADC targeting the membrane glycoprotein Trop-2 that was bought for 21 B$ by Gilead.

This phase I dose escalation trial was not a real all comers like Thera did in phase Ia. They have enrolled in this trial 25 patients with various type of cancers (pancreas, TNBC, colon, SCLC, etc..) They did no pre-selection of patients based on Trop-2 expression, a bit like Thera, but they tested biopsy samples on all of them for Trop-2 expression, and it ended up that >75% (17 of 25) of the patients were expressing Trop-2. That is a lot. Also, the patients enrolled in the study had on average been previously treated with three other chemotherapy drugs. In the case of TH1902's phase Ia, patients were previously treated on average with 8 other therapies. That's also a big difference. And Trodelvy cytotoxic agent is SN38, which is much more potent than docetaxel.

So, despite all these advantages, Trodelvy got "only" two partial responses, and 16 stable diseases, twelve of them for 16-36 months, and six of them survived 15-20+ months. So they have a lot more stable diseases, but on less treated patients with 75% of the patients expressing the ADC target (Trop-2).

Personnally, I find these results very encouraging for TH1902 because the Trodelvy trial was in my view much more favorable to achieve efficacy. These trial results were published in 2015. I think it puts in perspective TH1902's results we got yesterday. The blockbuster potential is there for TH1902, but also the whole SORT1+ platform. Proof of concept opens a lot of possibilities.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4558321/

SPCEO1 wrote: It traded about 287,000 shares on the week or a little less than $600,000 worth of THTX stock.

Despite a financing that took a ugly possible share sale off the table and clinical data that is highly suggestive of good things to come in cancer.

Management let the stock bleed out from its self-inflicted wounds and now it is effectively dead enough that even when management does some really good stuff, it is not enough and too late to generate a heart beat.