A few answers on IMMU Someone wondered what the IMMU market cap was around the Phase 1 data. It was around $400 mil mkt cap. Their focused TNBC Phase 2 had 69 patients. By that time, the SeaGen licensing had been announced and the market cap was around $750mil and rose to $1.25 bil. Interestingly, it was a medical oriented hedge fund that was the activist saying the SeaGen deal undervalued the opportunity, and they were right.
They seemed to focus pretty quickly on TNBC from their basket trial as the data pointed to OK response rates and efficacy. Their basket trial looks fairly similar to THTX but was spread even wider amongst tumor types.
The delay hiccup I mentioned was actually around manufacturing and the FDA halted it and required a lot more data. This came around the Phase 2 timeframe and dragged it out. We know the TNBC data was solid (ORR around 34% and added 4-6 months) and was safe so they filed for the drug on Phase 2 data and started the Phase 3 but quickly got approval anyway and we know what happened after that. Off to the races. I guess the point is, in tumors with no approved therapies, you can move a heck of a lot faster.
my previous rough guide looking at a number of oncology charts was Phase 1 into 2 you saw 4-5x share price appreciation from the pre-trial price. Then another 4x from phase 2 into approval (whenever that came) from the Phase 2 price. All in, a successful commercialization of one oncology indication was a 15 to 20x appreciation move from pre trial levels. It's not easy, we have a long, long way to go science wise (maybe not so much time wise if we get lucky) and this is just an average indication. We can't jump up and down yet, but these baby steps are at least moving us away from the negative scenarios and toward the positive scenarios. Perhaps by summer end or Fall we can go from baby step to leap.