Won't be as bad as we think My guess is that we will be down 8%-12% by the end of the day, but nothing more. We will stagnate a few weeks then rebound some, and come September we will be around75- 85 cents.
However, the market for Cobalt is now over supplied, and JRV said in their review they expect things to turn around next half of the decade. So expect low Cobalt proces for the forseeable future. The difference between now, and Ecobalt and Formation Metals, is Jervois has financing, and a positive cash flow. Cobalt would really need to tank to put Jervois under water.
I do have lingering concerns over the long haul. The #2 EV maker (Tesla) has 50% 2170 and the rest Cobalt free (LFP and 4860's). That will change to 100% Cobalt free as they migrate to 4869's. The Number #1 EV maker is already LFP, and now Ford is embracing LFP's. Soooooo, as we progress with this EV market, we have to ask ourselfs, are the millions of new EV's going to be high cost Cobalt varieties, or cheap LFP style. Additionally, each year we wait, is a year closer to solid state with 10 minute charging on Cobalt free batteries.
My fear is that as the movement tips away from Cobalt batteries, Cobalt capacity will be massively over supplied, and JRV will be crushed with $12/lb Cobalt prices. I expect that to happen by 2028.