RE:Technical Challenges to Delay EV Solid-State Battery Good article. Yeah, it is hard to determine ground truth with opposing things being said. I recall 6-8 years ago (ca 2016 or so?) people saying Solid State batteries are about a decade out. Well... getting close to that mark. I showed an article that says NIO will be selling a car in 2023 with Solid State, and others say 2025. However, that won't be at scale like you say for awhile.
So I agree, Solid State is not a near term threat, but a longer term threat (say 4-5+ years out). However, the 4860's and the LPF are. In fact LPF are getting better (google it). Recently, CATL (I think) said their LPF are getting a 20% boost. LPF's are getting better each chear. The 4860's are are also terrific.
However, more concerning is.... who really cares. If the Model Y LFP has 270 mile range (and quickly charges), that is sufficient for long range driving. Most families with cars can have one limited range commuter car, with the other for longer trips (e.g. a larger SUV, etc).
Where does Cobalt sit in all this? Cobalt is an expensive, politically unstable mineral with HUGE cost swings. It has already been engineered out at GREAT cost savings (4860's, LPF). The US has stated it's policy is to erradicate Cobalt dependencies. So Solid State is just the final nail in the Coffin. What we have now is Buggy Whips, and Jervois is trying to get in and dominate the market.
It is a deeply flawed plan.