RE:RE:RE:Hackett on 2022/23 winter best of podcast 60% onwardsYou are correct he does say just that and I keyed in on what he said after that being that the US could have a good rough first half of the winter especially in the eastern half which is more populous and traditionally uses more NG for heat.
He does not say it will be colder than normal I just inferred it with a rough winter.
I also was more interested in the fact that it was the first half of winter that he said would be rough not olny because it is closer and makes payoffs for NG suppliers quicker but it also amplifies the outlook for the demand that is required right now for European and North American Inventories and may keep NG prices higher into the second half of the winter when they will all have to look forward to inventory injections again and summer power generation worries. I do want there to be ample supply as I said before I do not want any undue suffering but having high demand and prices and having to pay for a lack of foresight, even if only monetarily, seems fair to me. Maybe I am meaner than I think.
I am not that concerned with how fast El Nino shows up in the second half because as I said, if it is warmer, it will just have them wondering how hot of a spring and summer will be and will they get enough injected into inventories again in the next shouder season if there is one. This could cycle for a while until sufficient production is ramped up if ever.
GLTY and all
llerrad5 wrote: The way I read it is that the fist part of the winter will be cold and lots of snow. Not so sure he's suggesting colder than nomral?
El Nino is the wild card.
How fast will it show up?
Warmer.