Knight Therapeutics Inc KHTRF

Primary Symbol: T.GUD

Healthcare

Knight Therapeutics Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company’s principal business activity is developing, acquiring, in-licensing, out-licensing, manufacturing, marketing and distributing pharmaceutical products in Canada, Latin America and select international markets. It finances other life sciences companies and secures product distribution rights for Canada and select international markets. The Company invests in life sciences venture capital funds whereby the Company may receive preferential access to healthcare products for Canada and select international markets. It develops pharmaceutical products, including those to treat neglected tropical and rare pediatric diseases. The portfolio consists of pharmaceutical products with molecules and includes both in-licensed products such as Lenvima, Cresemba, Halaven, Trelstar, Akynzeo, Ambisome, Minjuvi, Imvexxy as well as products owned by Knight such as Exelon and Impavido.

TSX:GUD - Post by User

Knight Therapeutics Inc > More than 55 million people Worldwide with dementia

<< Previous

Bullboard Posts

Next >>

Comment by gudisgoodon Aug 16, 2022 4:01am

131 Views

Post# 34898476

RE:RE:RE:RE:More than 55 million people Worldwide with dementia

MrMugsy wrote:

curiousj wrote: How would you justfiy the purchase of Exelon at over 3x and just below 4x EV/Sales for a generic given the high likelihood that Novartis has already maximized sales in Latam? On top of that, Novartis is looking to get rid of their entire generic business through their intent to sell Sandoz, which at the time Knight may have been unaware...

Knowing how GUD is very careful as to how much they pay - I think it's hard to really know what they are thinking, how they feel growth will evolve for Exelon or what kind of advantage they have over Novartis' attempts to maximize sales.

The other thing is ... based on growth targets ... does Exelon open additional doors with Novartis? Is this the beginning of a bigger future partnership? No idea - but - likely the Exelon deal was done for bigger opportunity than we're aware.

Don't forget that manufacturing inhouse could also add value to the per pill value to GUD.

There are so many redaction in the deal with Novartis ... can't tell what's really at stake here.

The Exelon acquisition is looking pretty good in my opinion.

So far:

$21M of net profit in 2021 (from May -> End of 2021).
$19M of net profit YTD ($4.5M sort of “one-time”, so “normalized” YTD net profit would be $14.5M).
Exelon could therefore do $25-30M net profit in 2022. Transfer of market authorization and assuming commercial activities will affect numbers for this year, of course, but you get the point. This thing cost us $172M. 25/172 = 14.5%.
The market for alzheimer’s is expected to double by 2030 – that’s a CAGR of 9%. Maintaining the current market share means satisfactory growth by itself. Assuming 9% yearly growth in net profit, that’s $50M of yearly net profit in 2030. (The risk is being unable to maintain market share, of course.)
If GUD can either increase Exelon’s market share or sell more efficiently – or both – we could see an above 9% yearly growth in net profit from Exelon.
Furthermore, Exelon brings lots of volume to GUD’s “Specialty CNS and GI” portfolio . I believe there’s a cross-selling benefit to this?