RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:I hold thist Stock since Sandspring Resources."If time is money ,then the gold sector is one of the worst sector."
just a few months ago this year, gold was a lot higher over $2000 and all the gold miners were a lot higher too. in just a few months Brioche forgot everything. gold this century since the year 2000 outperformed the stock market s&p500.
"i just follow Lassonde to exit step by step ."
if you mean Lassonde's fnv, it is not only gold now, a large portion of it is oil&gas.
q2 revenue from oil gas $108 mil, precious metal $243 mil.
read what they say:
"Our Energy assets performed well and are the driver behind our record revenues."
"The growth was primarily driven by higher realized oil and gas prices from our Energy assets. These more than offset the decrease in Precious Metal revenue"
all oil&gas companies are up with the rise in oil price, so of course fnv oil&gas is up too. if global recession comes (usa and china already heading there) then oil price drops as it is gradually doing now. if oil price drops to negative like it did not long ago, then Brioche would be continuously crying on the fnv board complaining how bad management is for getting into oil&gas lol.
and as oil price drops in recession, gold miners aisc drop making them more profitable (but not fnv whose cost is relatively fixed). countries around the world are still printing and need to do QE again to fight recession so inflation stays high and gold price goes up. recession + inflation gives stagflation, the best environment for gold price and gold miners.
harder for fnv to double in price, its p/e of 32 would need to go to a nose bleed p/e of 64.
while smaller company like gcm with tiny p/e has more room to double and quadruple.
when toro and marmato expansion is completed to give 600k oz/yr, gcm/aris with a 60x smaller market cap can actually have higher gold oz production than fnv (currently around 500k oz/yr not including oil&gas).
Brioche wrote: Tobi,
You are recitating the prospectus for the merger .
You should observe what's behind the scene .
A) the assets
1) segovia ..(what was the cash cow , by which everything has been possible , feeding everything apetite , mal investment , divi etc..)
The colombian manager Paredes ( there for the last 15 y) is stepping down within few weeks. Who to replace him ? I hope you are knowing 13/15% of the prod is coming from "small miners " and their contracts. What would they do in case of dispute with the new team ? Remember they lower the aisc.
Take a look at the upper surface in marmato .
2) toro : despite what serafinito sold us , 15months ago , did you see any picture , photo , video of the site ? What are the real advancements there ?
The only event we got , is the pfs once again postponed , of course for good reason ...the merger ..Remember they also need a last environmental permit.
3) marmato : the legendary Woodyer sold us a 2022 prod of 50 k + oz gold there . Q2 report said they exited 15.300 oz at $1480 aisc for H1 , with the fanfastic 7400 oz at 1530 for Q2. Strong improvement lol. So ...50 k really ?
Of course " there is a price for the construction" ...bla bla bla...
But the most worrying ,is that the legendary woodyer has already 15% of the output to wpm .( to buy 10% of soto) . At this pace , all the marmato output will go to wpm soon...-))
4) soto : monstruous capex . 20% irr without any correction for inflation ! Crazy . No doubt the new aris will become the main owner as it's already officialy the operator . So $300 mil to give to mubadala . ( my bet is Mubadala will exchange a good chuck of shares for debt ( convertibles) meaning in case of difficulty more dil ..i.e eqx ) plus 600 mil to find to be built . ( you can add 30% for sure )
Wpm rubs irs hands.
5) age : i don't see theses guys running the company for long . It means along the road potential new team , new direction ... and new losses.
I insist on the fact this team is clearly saying everywhere they want to be a leading gold miner in s.america..by oz .
Always the first sentence of their pr . They never never tell u , which profit and above all what the stockprice will be.
If you want an exemple , have just a look at equinox . Same narrative , same ex team , same participants : a one million oz company !!. At the end all time low for the stock.
B ) you do not know where the price of gold is headed . We have heavy tensions everywhere in the world , a pshychopath guy talking nuclear ad nauseam , and... inflation as never . And gold seems ...dead.
To end , i do not short , i just follow Lassonde to exit step by step . If time is money ,then the gold sector is one of the worst sector. GLTA