RE:AnalystsOn the whole, fair comments...at least as it applies to Bombardier. I read the analyst reports too, and yes, they certainly add additional colour or perspective to my own thoughts. That being said,I can usually find analysts on any and all sides of the fence of any given stock. So how, with the same information, can they come up with such wide and varying opinions? The reality is that, being human, they all come with their own different biases, or different lenses, or different priorities, or at their worst, different..."directives". And look no further than our own portfolios. If the analysts were so damn good at it, and consistent, we would all be filthy rich just following their oh-so-constantly-right advice.
But as we both know, it just ain't that way.
lb1temporary wrote: ‘’…
What I REALLY don't like about the industry is their "after the fact" analysis...changing their outlook (up or down) after a given quarter. Ummm, thanks for coming out genius….’’ Easy to critic. But what do you expect from them? They are not insiders. They have to manage the public information only. They must therefore react to events, not being alerted in advance.
For my part, I share my investment between 4 brokers to have access to 4 different analysis. Even if I have skills to analyse (I did that at job all my life), I appreciate to read them. It's an important
additional tool. This way I’m sure to have a range of opinions. I expect that they write sound and complete analysis taking into account all the important points and describing to me the perspectives in front of a company. Usually they did that. But they are not soothsayers; there is no magic.
I understand that too. But let’s see how they behaved this year with Bombardier: The market went down in the first half of the year following the Ukraine’s war and the interest hikes. Bombardier’s shares were badly hit. A lot of participants on this board feared the worst, feared supply difficulties, disappointing deliveries etc….
Analysts, those damned incompetents, stood their ground, none revised significantly their forecasts as to operations. They maintained that the company continued to recover. They only revised the multiples to apply which is normal given the bear market. So: better reaction than many participants on this board.
More, some gave me additional perspective
I wouldn't have had otherwise:
- June 30, Poirier of Desjardins published an express note following a call with Richer and Demosky reiterating their confidence in the operations, forecasts and future of the company. He even disclosed that the orders activity in Q2 was as strong as in the Q1. So, there were no disruptions in operations. More, Poirier is the first to give a new perspective of the future free cash flow discussing the Alstom”s 400M$ to be released in february. Many discussed this fact on this board after I posted the analysis.
- In their august analysis, Poirier of Desjardins and Spracklin from RBC gave a sound analysis of the importance and the impact of the larger deposits asked from buyers. Poirier on his side forecast 700M$ - 1 B$ more debt reimbursement in the next 9 months (I can testify to the seriousness of his analysis). I highlighted that while I posted his analysis 3 weeks ago.
So, please......