Further Thoughts on Valuation In my initial notes from the Shareholder Update Call, I didn't include Rob Theoret's two Tugaske Project EBITDA scenarios:
At $424/ton (avg price of the past 20 years): $100-$110mm EBITDA
At $700/ton (today's price): $180-$185mm EBITDA
Maybe the right answer is somewhere in the middle, so $140mm-$150mm? Put a 9x valuation on that (mid-point of Rob's historical 8x-10x range), and you get a valuation of $1.35B. Multiply that by GSP's proposed ownership of 67%, and you get a market cap of $905mm, 9.3x higher than last night's close of $97mm. Even with considerable dilution, that's quite a ways from today's share price.