RE:RE:Bicycle Therap. - encouraging in ovarianOnce again, helpful posts from you all and further's our understandings of various issues. As a follow-up, I see that one analyst increased their price target by $10, which equates to $300mil in additional market cap, on Bicycle. So that's what fairly thin, but decent, data can get you for one cancer indication - a $300mil bump in valuation.
They decreased the discount rate and justified it with these points, some of which apply to TH1902:
- an 18 month PR (actually quite a good result) and 1 PR in a 12th line heavily pre-treated patient. But still, just 2 out of 9 results are what the analyst points to.
- going against all statistical rules, they are exicted in urothelial that 2 out of 3 responded, so they think it will have a high ORR and estimate in the 40% range. Seems silly to base a forecast on such a small dataset. They were both PRs and one patient had failed Padcev. So also points out a patient that failed existing SOC, but shows even a PR is a highly positive sign. We had one of those examples given in the 1a data.
- the dosage safety with few grade 3 AEs and only 1 dose intertuption patient. It sounds like other drugs that targeted EphA2 had a lot of safety issues. This is one area we need to be cautious about since we don't have any prior datasets of a sort1+ targeted therapy. We just don't know the full set of issues that may pop up targeting it yet.
They have first year revenues from this drug in both cancers around $45mil and starting in 2025. They have peak revenues for those 2 cancers of around $300mil for third line treatment, peaking 2030.