RE:RE:Jerry Maguire in reverseFabulous post Migraine!!
Your advice generally holds for all investments IMO, not just oil.
Your comment about being on the same side as the big traders is very important, I call it "not fighting the tape". In order to do this you need a few things -
1.....be humble. Don't think you know more than the experts. You don't!!
2....without a huge amount of data you need to be see patterns (more than just technical analysis - call it spidey sense) and recognize when something is out of whack
3...be cold-hearted with your trades - ie stay rational and try as much as possible to limit your emotions
4....be patient - when you see something is out of whack it might take a while before the pros decide to turn things around and react to it
5....recognize that all the talking heads on TV and in the media have an agenda. Try to figure out what that agenda is.
6....above all DON'T BE GREEDY
Behind all that - Before you buy something....
A...know what you are buying and why you are buying it - too many people buy stocks without knowing much about the company. They spend more time deciding what to eat at a restaurant than they do researching a stock.
B....have a clear plan BEFORE you buy as to what you are going to do with it and STICK TO IT. The plan can range from buying at the open and selling before the close to buying something and holding it forever so that your grandchildren own it....and everything in between.
C....the corollary to B is don't look in the rearview mirror and beat yourself up if you couda done better (hindsight is 20/20 vision). Do look in the rearview mirror if there is a useful lesson to be learned that could help you make better decisions in the future.
I used to tell my clients that the market is like a pendulum. 10-15% of the time there is excess fear. 10-15% of the time there is too much greed and the rest of time "I don't know". When there is too much fear you should be buying and conversely when there is too much greed you should be overweighted cash and the rest of time be balanced and hold some cash to advantage of short term silliness.
If you can figure that out you will do very well with your investments.