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Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Alternate Symbol(s):  OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based exploration and production company. The Company operates in one segment, to explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin directly and through investments in securities of subsidiaries holding such interests. It has a portfolio of assets producing around 35,700 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. Its operating areas include Cardium, Peace River and Viking areas of Alberta. Its Cardium asset is a fully delineated and de-risked asset. It is focused on manufacturing repeatable low-decline and high-netback light-oil wells across its Cardium land base. The Viking is a light oil, horizontal development play located in central Alberta. Its operations are focused on the Esther area. Peace River is a stable, cold-flow, base production asset. It operates on a contiguous and an acreage within the heart of the Peace River Oilsands region.


TSX:OBE - Post by User

Comment by JohnJBondon Sep 23, 2022 1:41am
174 Views
Post# 34980955

RE:RE:RE:RE:US Strategic Petroleum Reserve

RE:RE:RE:RE:US Strategic Petroleum ReserveThe US has a tremendous ability to get things done when they see the need to do so

It seems likely the US will face a crisis when their SPR runs out - or sometime before 

It seems likely that event will happen in 2023

Its unclear how low the SPR can get before being effectively empty - is it 1 million barrels or 10, or 50 or 100?

At 1 million barrels per day the US has 400 days or less left 

If you assume the above - then what happens at the end of 2023?

That answer is what I'm curious about 

1.    The US may try to buy the oil overseas - much like Europe is trying to by LNG cargoes presently.    Other countries will do the same.   This suggests higher prices 

2.     The US may try to get more oil from Canada.    However at about the same time Canadas tran mountain pipeline expansion should be open.    To be successful US buyers would have to pay more 

3.   The US may try to normalize relationships with Iran and Venezuela.    But China is already doing that - so there may not be additional barrels there 

4.  The US may increase its own drilling in some type of national mobilization.    However as you mention they need to find more drilling sand and the ability to deliver it to the frac site 

5.   The US may impose a wind fall profits tax on oil producers - which would likely deincentivize increased production 

6.  The US may increase funding allocation to high entropy energy sources and make the crisis much worse - Biden will still be in power in 2023 so this is possible 

There May be other possible routes

All of these lead to much higher oil prices in 2023 (H2) and 2024.    May be higher still after that 

This looks very positive for OBE

 Canada May introduce a windfall gains tax - but OBEs tax losses should protect OBE

OBE has 14 years of reserves - with loads more to be added as they step out drilling in peace river and Viking 

Its hard to guess what WTI will be at the end of 2023.     $150 seems too low for a crisis with no obvious solution.     $200-300 seems more like it 

At the same time OBE should be selling about 10,000 obe of gas and 28,000 boe liquids 

What can stop this?

WW3
More lock downs
?

What is the $US / CAD exchange rate likely to be at this time?


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