RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:total ballpark deal value biorun wrote: Engcan77 - sorry, I was only looking at the middle and back end of the deal.
Whether the upfront is 1 million, 2 million, or even 5 million, that really doesn't do anything to move the share price or affect the overall deal value. Its really the total value of the agreement over the term which evidently looked at Abbvie's own forecasts as the key reference point.
If they shared those forecasts with us, I am sure we would feel so much better, but again, we meander in the dark and have to try to guestimate the most likely scenario with the data clues they have clearly provided in the presentation deck. The presentation clearly said that the upfront was sacrificed for sustained revenue in future in the form of a better long term royalty so I discounted that in the back of the envelope analysis.
The company sees the deal as "amazing", but its not so "amazing" for us having seen over 110% of our increased valuation wiped off the table since the deal was announced (from 35c).
You know when everything was put on the table, I am sure they looked at all the variants of how the deal would play out, and decided on a longer term revenue stream over whatever upfront payments could be negotiated. In the end, if Linda was ok with the deal, as it has been read, then I guess that the fruit was fully squeezed and that is the very best we could ask for.
CEOs must always balance the long term interests of the company with the short term expecations of shareholders which is reflected in the appreciation of the market share price. I need say no more.
In my view, they can immediately appoint Bieber to the post as interim CEO while they complete the placement for a longer term appointee. If you do a little dd on him (both on the internet and otherwise), one would find that he is highly effective, extraordinarly well connected and is a door opener with like minded top executives in the big pharma space. The fact that he has both the scientific and executive background to make such overall conclusions about Geraldine's science is extraordinarily valuable to my confidence in the longer term future.
All I can say is today is that I am 110% with Geraldine here and so grateful for her outstanding leadership contribution. The product is all there to make the company hundreds of millions or more, this company deperately needs a leader who will invest in Sirona and take it there.
Geraldine and her scientific team are really the Saints of Sirona.
If the company is guaranteed 17 years of "Royalty" payments how would it be if they guaranteed shareholders 17 years of a dividend payment -- say at 5% or so? Would that also provide a boost to the shareprice?
I thought they might at least regurgitate the news release at the open this morning but they couldn't even be bothered to do that. You can measure just how much they are concerned about "shareholder value". Today's share price is a good indication.