Technicals Are Lagging Indicatorsand serve their place as the probablities of a "future move" and can be pretty reliable but are never 100% and can even result in a complete miss.
Those who use technicals must be able to adapt even if it means they were wrong or the move wasn't as big etc. Patterns and support/resistance levels are either confirmed (and then obsolete) or rejected (and become invalidated) in varying time intervals. It is constantly evolving and the time intervals can be long term and short term.
For those who can't read a chart at all - oil has been in a downtrend since June 2022, has been in a broadening decending wedge since March 2022 with June 2022's high as a shortlived breakout and have sinced returned to the aforementioned wedge. Infact WTI hit its head on the upper resitance line at $93.64.
I HAVE NO IDEA WHERE OIL IS GOING. But I do know until we move above the 200DMA we are in a bearish trend. That needs to break and yes it could be very soon! Or it could not.
I just want confirmation. But righ now we are either gonna re-test the upper resistance or continue to float down.
Before this recent rally that has sold off a bit, both BTE and Oil were below the 200DMA. BTE has sinced climbed back over on the recent rally but it will be important for BTE to hold above.
I'm hoping for a broad stock market capitulation event where things sell off another 15%+ There's lots to be bearish about in terms of global financial stability and if that breaks down in meaningful ways WTI spot prices will be in for extreme moves.
What happened in the UK with the pension market is pretty serious. And there are mutlitple "cracks" around the world including China. Add in the obvious trend of Central Banks and OPEC+'s early move to insulate the oil price from what it percieves to be upcoming shocks to the market is probably bearish more than it is bullish imo. But the spring in oil supply/production is coiling and we could see new highs but even aggressie lows.