RE:RE:RIO stock offerLet's assume a "NO" vote and the stock takes a 50% haircut (doubtful that big a drop). Also assume a rights offering of 1 billion (also doubtful that much needed). Therefore 50 million shares issued which represents a 25% dilution. Remember that RIO has to participate fully or risk losing control. The preceding is a worse case scenario. A "NO" vote guarantees that once the massive free cash flow begins, the stock will move up accordingly and RIO will be forced to up the bid substantially. Don't believe RIO's "not a cent more" bluster. Recall that the independent valuation was $41 to $58. RIO's $43 offer is a joke.
As long as 25% of the minority excluding Pentwater and Sailingstone vote "No", the simple majority hurdle will not be met and this bid (along with possible future bids) will fail.