RE:RE:My heart is in the right placemrbb wrote: if oil/gas demand will become less and less desirable due to better green renewables, why the concerted effort to take down this sector with anti oil campaign, carbon tax, layers upon layers of red tape and regulation to slow it down? Why not let oil die on its own?
Obscure1 wrote:
My point is that the writing is on the wall for the oil industry. It won't happen overnight but it is going to happen. The new American IRAct is going to advance the agenda much faster than people think. That is why investment funds are pulling back on oil funding oil companies.
Posters have correctly identified that there is still a lot of oil out there. As demand drops, I expect that the lowest cost producers will fight for market share.
Where does all of this leave Suncor? I think SU will continue to be a cash cow for years to come. Management at SU obviously agrees (buying back its shares and buying minority interest in Fort Hills, etc). As such, SU should remain an attractive and low risk investment for years to come.
Unfortunately, the market doesn't reward sunset industry stories.
I'm happy to collect 3.25% on my TDB8150 daily interest account while the market is so volative and scary. While SU's 4.1% yield is better than 3.25%, there are just too many risk factors to the market (not necessarily to Suncor) that can drag everything down.
I know my opinions lately are not very popular here. That is ok with me. My heart is in the right place.
I agree, mrbb, that the Government should leave well enough alone and let the natural market forces do the work. When Governments get involved, history has shown that they screw things up and the same will happen during this transition.
Getting back to the issue of oil and future oil demand, there is clearly a difference of opinion here and IMO that is nothing of short of wonderful. Differences of opinion is what makes a market. If everyone thought the same there wouldn't be a market.
Just for the sake of argument, let's assume that in a way both sides of the argument are right - there is a massive move to EVs which offset by growing use of oil in the 3rd world and world oil demand and prices for the foreseable future stays flat. The question then becomes as investors which would you rather own, a company whose revenues while great stay constant or perhaps rise with inflation, or a company that is growing its revenues well in excess of inflation? I can tell you right now I would vote for the latter which is something I have done for 50 years and it has paid off for me. Did I get it right every time? NOPE, but the winners more than outweighed the losses from the losers.
The way I see it, the world is changing as it has since since history began. The challenge today as investors is that the speed of that change is accelerating. Investors that see where the change is going and invest accordingly make a lot of money. Those that ignore or fight the change don't do as well. It is a simple fact. As an example, based on advice from engineer friends that were working on the digital switch at Nortel in the 1970s who told me that this technology would allow for the convergence of many technologies and would change the world, I bought in and ended up owning many companies over the years that grew like wildfire. Conversely, people who either didn't see this change or were deniers, lost money by investing in companies that were declining or whose revenues stayed flat. IMO, the same thing is happening today in regard to EVs and renewable energy in general and in companies that are developing technologies to solve the problems associated with this transition. This is where a growing proportion of my investments are going.
The world in the future is going to look at lot different than it does today. Either you accept that fact or not and invest accordingly or you don't. The choice is up to you. Over my lifetime I have seen so much change that I know where my vote is going.
And....if I may....in regards to Africa buying old ICEs from the West, I ask the question - "Did Africa buy all the old analog switches that the West didn't need anymore or did they skip that step and go directly to cell phones (digital switches)?