Baggers: 10, 20, 50, 162 The poster, Comonreally42, took issue with my 10 bagger claims, saying that a 10 bagger is no big deal, that I had made the claim at $1.10 so it's easy to make it at 16¢. He's right, of course, but I was not interested in looking deeper into the numbers last night.
I think I made the "prediction" at higher prices than $1.10, but always on the condition that Bioasis had accomplishments of sufficient importance to make news in the biotech and financial media, with more possible if Bioasis were to make the popular media (CNN, CNBC, NY Times, Financial Times, etc.). However, Bioasis, xB3 and maybe even EGF must succeed for any serious valuation can be achieved. (EGF can't hurt.)
The gold standard for comparison of share prices and market caps is Denali. I'm going to look at Bioasis market caps/share prices that are only a small percentage of Denali's market cap. If xB3 works then Bioasis must be compared to Denali because the market will surely do so. Also remember that the current Denali markat cap is about half of its market cap of two years ago. So let's look at some numbers, some of them slightly rounded off for clarity.
Bioasis
Shares outstanding: 80,000,000
Fully diluted: 110,000,000 (Includes about 30 million warrants and options.)
IPO/SPAC rollback: 1 for 30 (No idea what this number will be. 30 is hardly even a guess, really.)
Shares outstanding, fully diluted, after rollback: 110 million / 30 = 3.667 million
Change in market cap after rollback: none (with news at the IPO/RTO/SPAC, the market cap could rise.)
Dilution caused by IPO/RTO/SPAC: 100%
Fully diluted after IPO/RTO/SPAC: 7.333 million shares.
Fully diluted market cap before rollback: 110,000,000 x $0.16 = $17,600,000.
Change in market cap after IPO/RTO/SPAC: Doubles
Fully diluted market cap after rollback and IPO/RTO/SPAC: $17,600,000 X 2 = $35,200,000
Denali
Denali's current market cap (USD): $4.2 billion.
Denali's current market cap (CDN): $4.2 billion x 1.36 = $5.7 billion
Bagger numbers after rollback and IPO/RTO/SPAC are based on Bioasis achieving various percentages of Denali market cap.
For example, if Bioasis and Denali market caps equalized, then the Bioasis share price would be:
$5.7 billion / 7.333 million shares = CDN $778 per Bioasis share.
Dividing $778 by post rollback share price of 30 x $0.16 or $4.80 is a 162 bagger from today.
Using $1.10 instead of 16¢ for current share price, we have 778 / ($1.10 x 30) = 23.6 bagger
So, using today's SP of 16¢, after a big rollback of 1 for 30, and with double dilution after an IPO/RTO/SPAC, we would achieve the following baggers:
100% of Denali market cap: $778 / $4.80 = 162 bagger
90% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.9/ $4.80 = 146 bagger
80% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.8/ $4.80 = 130 bagger
70% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.7/ $4.80 = 113 bagger
60% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.6/ $4.80 = 97 bagger
50% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.5/ $4.80 = 81 bagger
40% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.4/ $4.80 = 65 bagger
30% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.3/ $4.80 = 49 bagger
20% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.2/ $4.80 = 32 bagger
10% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.1/ $4.80 = 16 bagger
5% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.05/ $4.80 = 8 bagger
1% of Denali market cap: $778 x 0.01/ $4.80 = 1.6 bagger
To achieve a 10 bagger from 16¢ would require (10 x $4.80) / 778 = 0.062 or a Bioasis market cap equal to 6.2% of Denali's market cap.
If xB3 works, and if EGF works out, then a market cap of at least 20% to 30$ of Denali's market cap should be possible, especially with Bioasis trading on NASDAQ with its market opportunities then equal to Denali's.
20% to 30% would be a 32 bagger to 49 bagger from here.
50% would be swell, too.
But make no mistake, these numbers are meaningless unless at least EGF or xB3 works. If they both work then look out!
And these are not predictions. The numbers are based on certain conditions being met.
If you find an error or twelve, let me know.
Dream, baby, dream!
jd