RE:Is a deal/buyout in 2022 realistic?
fox7mf wrote: It's been said that BP likes to wrap up ongoing M&A negotiations before the end of the year in which they commenced. However, with Coffey stating his desire to present Bracelet results at a major conference in 2023, as well as stating he expects partnership news in the next 6 months, I guess wrapping things up this year is too big an ask. Add in Douglas Loe figuring ph3 breast & partnerships pushing out as far as 2024, it appears this interminable journey extends. Perhaps Goblet changes all this, and of course Matt isn't telling investors everything...so...c'mon Roche, get us a nice 2022 xmas present!!
I agree on Roche and here us a summary of my thoughts, and I have stated much if thus before
Roche has wrapped up AWARE-1 and we are told that we will see AWARE-1 final data in Q4 2022
Roche knows exactly what pela does with Tecentriq, Roche is not waiting on any more data there.
Roche working with pela is AWARE-1 potentially confirmed 2 biomarkers.
GOBLET was created to see if the same potential biomarkers for mBC worked for oanc.
INHO Roche woukd not have engaged in GOBLET if the results were poor. I also believe that Roche used the mBC biomarkers for patient selection and that is the reason why every patient in the trial responded. I don't think there is any readon to assume anything else. So Based on that I conclude that the biomarkers work, and well.
As posted by others recently Roche is into CAR-T. The Mayo clinic was killing cancer with the combination if pela and CAR-T
The Mayo clinic's CAR-T results were released over a year ago and absolutely zero comments regarding any further development. IMHO BP stated, don't sign a CAR-T deal with anyone else as we want to run the CAR-T in house and signing a deal will devalue any BP deals for buyout.
So...
Roche is ready to go with Tecentriq and pela for mBC.
Roche is ready to go to carry on CAR-T
Roche seeing the GOBLET results is going be all over that pela combination drug therapy.
IMHO Roche is not waiting on BRACELET-1 data as Roche drugs were nit involved in that trial, and in fact Roche is not being offered the BRACELET-1 information until after Pfizer has completed their 90 day excludivity period.
That 90 day exclusivity period has not even started yet, as Matt noted they are letting that dara mature before finalizing the data, meaning they are waiting longer for longer Overall Survival data, meaning they are still watching patients abd how they are doing for a few more months, as the expect to release the BRACEKET-1 to Pfizer in Q1 2023. So Pfizer is 6-9 months away from conpleting their final reviews.
Roche gets none of that information until after Pfizer is done with is, so IHMO none of that data will
come into play for any decissions from Roche.
This past year Roche bought a company for $1.2B that makes Pela work better.
So after these GOBLET data that Pfizer has nothing to do with, IMHO Roche is potentially ready to move forward with both mBC and Panc
There have been comments that BP like to wrap up deals they started before the end of the year in which they started, but Roche has been around for many years, so I really have to question if rhat is valid for this year or not. But as Roche is more deeply aligned with pela that Pfizer, and Pfizer has exclisive datat coming, IMHO that puts a lot if pressure on Roche to do something before Pfizer.
As Pfizer is 6-9 mo away from final data review, this buys some time for Roche. The question is, is conpleting a deal before year end the best financial position for Roche? Or do they wait ?
Wait? Why and what for ?
IMHO ONC is letting the BRACELET -1 data mature for longer OS data. So IMHO, Roche may chiose to let the GOBLET data mature into 2023 as well, as Roche could have 2-3 more months of maturing GOBLET data before Pfiizer even get the final BRACELET-1 data.
INO the FDA phase II/III Gastro trial will come into play, as to timing on the pricess if that, and OBC gas stated they are already into thise discussions.
So timing right now is everything.
but the biggest question in my mind right now, because IMHO we will see Roche move on ONC first is, does it make more finincial tax reasons,etc for Roche to maie a buyout offer before end of Q4 2022, or does it make mire sense for Roche to let the GOBLET data mature into Q1 2023
In either case, IMHO we will see a buyout offer from Roche before Pfizer very far into their 90 day exclusivity period.
IMHO it would be in Roche's best interest to make a buyout move before Pfizer figures out exactly what they have, and possibly have to make a rushed bid.
With all that stated, I strongly believe we will see a Roche buyout offer within the next 4 months. I don't think the 6-9 month Pfizer review schedule will come into play.
I really hope we see a buyout before end of Q4 2022, but I cannot help thinking, Roche has an opportunity to sit on and let the GOBLET data mature a bit as well with little or no risk to Roche.
but as far as I am concerned I expect a Roche buyout offer withiin the next 4 months at the latest.