riski wrote: It sounds like you have the economics all figured out and what's to come. And for the most part, you are right. I don't disagree with what you are saying. There is more pain to come for the economy.
We agree here! The mistake you are making that many amateur economists/investors make is that you think the deluge of poor economic data will make the stock market and oil go down
News flash... the oil market has gone down haha. This is what causes people to sell low and buy high. They forget that the market is forward looking.
lol this is what I've been saying... currently fear is reflected in WTI wich is why I start buying when it's cheap. I still have lower price targets but that doesn't mean I don't start building a position For example, in the pandemic, one of my colleagues threw in the towel as the virus was starting to make hay in New York and the market was in a waterfall crash. As you know with the benefit of hindsight, that was pretty much at the bottom of the market crash. The inflection happened WAY before the virus even took a stronghold in North America. We didn't even have 100 cases in Canada yet. But once the RATE of new cases changed in New York, the rest of North Amercia could see what we were in for and the the market rallied. Many months before we hit peak covid and peak deaths.
If people would only learn to "see" the reversals and rallies! It's true I don't know how far down it will go, but I do know that all of Russia, Opec and USA filling the SPR are going to support from here. We are very likely near a bottom. What I am sure
Again, you're "sure" but you'd be wrong of is that you will miss it. You don't have the temperament to buy at the right time
haha bro I'm the one who's been selling at $8's and $7's... after buying at $5's and $6's. You show up here with your sell, sell, sell posts
Not once have I said to sell. I simply point out targets both up and down. at just the moments when you should be buying. Like today for example.
News flash, been buying since $6.70's lol. I'm a trader which makes me highly likely to buy when it's cheap and sell when it's expensive. You're a holder which is why you buy when its cheap, hold when its expensive and hold when its cheap again lol. I appreciate the convo. You underestimate people who observe broader risk, I think. While I may be bearish or think I understand the economic picture, I try to simply stick with TA because I know I can be wrong on "fundamental narratives". So when I'm bearish its normal for me to actually start buying when the stocks sell off because I never assume I know when the bottom is. I like to pace myself, manage the level of capital at risk and often take some action in opposition to my own thesis. This allows me to play into a down market or an upward reversal. IT's Just a Game Of Averages, isn't it?? Snowballer wrote: Incorrect. the "narrative" I have bought is that demand
will slow (the entire global economy will) and has started in the housing market and retail purchases (hence the inventory overhang) for example. Consumers will pull back much more, manufactureres slow down, empoyers will stop hiring. Off balance sheet debt now developing into a crises story. Lot of pain to come I think.
Then suddenly the Fed will one day pivot to spark the down economy into upward growth and kill deflationary signals. The paper market for oil is all that matters in terms of setting the tone and underlying pricing forcasts for equities and respective volatility while hard fundamentals will drive trend reversals. Yes, amen I accept that I will be a very rich man indeed.
riski wrote: Demand is not actually slowing much at all. But that's the narrative you have bought. A recession won't afffect demand in a material way. But the story will have legs. Then the story will change, but the numbers will be just the same.
If you can time the story telling, then you will be a rich man.
Snowballer wrote: My target is only to follow the market trend and it's reversal ;) And no I don't think a recession and slowing demand is wishful thinking lol.
riski wrote: Sounds like wishful thinking, lol. Best of luck to you in meeting your target.
Snowballer wrote: Careful Riski, you speak of certainty which is the biggest mistake of all. You have no idea if the stock will go to $3 or not. Are these stocks holding strong lol? BTE has lost 25% in 4 weeks and 35% in the last 6 months. It could easily drop to $3 on a capitulation event. If next year the market sells off I could easily see BTE at $3 or $4.
Liquidity crisis is no joke in a recession. Just keep that in mind. Oil will likely test $60 WTI before we see $100 imo. But I definately do not know for certain.
riski wrote: Biden was always going to get his price. He has too many tools at his disposal to not get what he wants.
But the takeaway here is the share prices of all these companies are holding strong. This is likely due to a combination of investors realizing that there is a floor on WTI and lots of upside potential. It's also due to the continued increase in value of these companies as they reduce debt and payback debt.
There was a guy here two weeks ago (DaveMTL) who was looking for an entry in the $3.00 range. This shows the naievity of a chart watcher. To assume BTE should be a $3 stock because it was before when it had way more debt and shares shows a gross misunderstanding in how to value businesses.
But I guess chart watchers/TA specialists haven't studied valuation. They just look for trends. It's a different discipline that, admittedly, I know nothing about.
But I do know that DaveMTL and all his chart friends are going to be waiting exactly one forever for BTE to trade at $3 again.
Maybe they can try catching the falling knife on TSLA instead.
65F09A wrote: I think just looking at CL inventory has been a bit of a red herring. Refining margins have been under extreme pressure since peaking in June. Margins have returned to normal levels (2018-2019). Product inventories are building which will send a further signal to refiners. The longer dated CL market never really acted concerned.
The supply/demand problem is not fixed. If the globe was firing on all cylinders we wouldn't be here. How long before the globe is firing on all or most of it's cylinders again? It sucks to admit it but Biden might have won this round.