RE:RE:RE:RE:Well Gonatgasgo Nice summary Gonat.
A few points to consider: - Though 2023 production is still in the 30-23kboepd range, not all production is created equal. Given the 6 new light Oil wells at tower, Crew's light oil production (at Tower) increases to 3% of their overall production Mix. Why is this significant? Because a) The cash flow is very good for this product mix (light Oil) and b) Tower is non-core to Crew and it's a saleable asset and this produciton equates to roughly equals 1000 boepd. With reserves & acreage, this will generate a nice sum of money upon sale.
- Though Crew have given the 2026 year (year 4) for where they reduce their Infrastructure CapEx but drill up to the 60,000 boepd mark, it is highly unlikely it will be Crew doing this, at this time. As Groundbirch is commissioned in Q4, 2025 aligned with LNG Canada and exit 2025 with 55,000 boepd as per the plan, this then is a turnkey asset for an LNG JV participant, namely Shell to take over the keys and drill to fill from there.
I do see Crew forging forward with this plan, unless an offer comes in prior (always can be the case), but I
do not see this as a 4 year plan, it is likely a 3 year plan with a very profitable exit at or near Year End 2025.
I will be there, with my shares and I will toast to the great team here on this forum.
~The Great Cheadle.
gonatgasgo wrote: My summary with some observations.
Debt to EBITDA is at 0.5x. They want to keep it below 1.0x so they may increase the debt back to $300M or more (my interpretation) but they do not give a target other than 1.0x EBITDA.
They will not refinance the long term debt, but rather use the line of credit (my interpretation; not clearly stated).
Capex over the next 4 years: $1.4B - 1.5B
Capex including infrastructure
2023: $230-250M
2024: $400-450M
2025: $400-450M
2026: $325-375M
I am not sure if AFF will even exceed capex in 2024 and 2025. However, they should be significant free cash flows positive in 2026.
Production
2022: 32,000 - 33,000 boe/d
2023: 30,000 - 32,000
2024: 35,000 - 37,000
2025: 41,000 - 43,000
2026: 60,000 - 62,000
They are clearly an outlier here versus the majority who are limiting growth and paying back shareholders. They focus on LONG TERM growth and not annual growth. If you can keep your eyes closed for 4 years, when you reopen them it will look amazing.
Let's hope this is well received tomorrow but I am a little bit nervous.